Aluminum alloy futures move sideways, spot demand insufficient, prices held steady awaiting market direction [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures side: The ADC12 aluminum alloy contract for September 2026 moved sideways today, opening at 22,950 yuan/mt in early trading. The intraday high was 23,100 yuan/mt and the low was 22,915 yuan/mt, and as of the close, the futures settled at 22,980 yuan/mt, edging up 35 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. The intraday trend repeatedly tested both the upside and downside; after dipping to lows multiple times, it found support and rebounded, but the average price line consistently capped price gains, with the bulls’ rebound strength remaining weak. On the 4-hour chart, prices held above the DKX moving average support, and the KD indicator stayed in the neutral zone, reflecting a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday trading volume expanded in tandem, while open interest pulled back slightly, with market sentiment turning mediocre.

Spot side: ADC12 market quotations remained largely stable today. The pullback in aluminum prices was limited, and the cost side lacked any clear drivers for price adjustment. Meanwhile, downstream demand remained subdued, order releases were insufficient, and the trading atmosphere was calm amid strong wait-and-see sentiment. Against the backdrop of limited cost support and weak demand, the market overall held prices steady. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to continue moving sideways.

On the import front, overseas ADC12 offers weakened slightly to the $3,050–$3,190/mt range. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow, and the immediate loss per metric ton contracted to 867 yuan. If overseas offers keep pulling back, the import profit window may gradually open, at which point an increase in imports will supplement domestic supply to some extent.