SMM News, July 14:
Metals market:
As of the close of the morning session, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 0.66%, SHFE aluminum rose 1.17%. SHFE lead fell 1.03%, SHFE zinc fell 0.42%. SHFE tin fell 0.7%. SHFE nickel rose 0.49%.
In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.57%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.15%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.2%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.89%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.21%.
Most ferrous metals rose. Iron ore rose 1.2%, rebar was flat at 3,067 yuan/mt, HRC rose 0.12%. Stainless steel rose 1.78%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract edged up, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.96%.
In overseas base metals, as of 11:42 am, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.3%, LME aluminum rose 0.87%, LME lead fell 0.21%. LME zinc edged down, LME tin rose 1.11%. LME nickel rose 0.24%.
Precious metals: As of 11:42 am, COMEX gold rose 0.45%, COMEX silver fell 0.15%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 1.51%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.67%.
Additionally, as of the close of the morning session, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.38%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.2%.
As of the close of the morning session, the most-traded European container freight futures contract rose 2.66% to 2,486.5 points.
As of 11:42 am on July 14, selected futures morning session quotes:
Spot and Fundamentals
Zinc: Mainstream transaction prices for #0 zinc concentrated in the range of 24,595~24,705 yuan/mt, Shuangyan traded mostly at 24,725~24,825 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transactions were at 24,525~24,635 yuan/mt. In early trading, market offers were at a premium of 20~30 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no offers against the futures contract yet...
Macro Front
Domestic side:
[China's H1 import and export scale exceeded 25 trillion yuan for the first time, up 16.9% YoY; strong momentum expected to persist in H2 foreign trade] The State Council Information Office held a press conference today (July 14) to introduce China's foreign trade performance this year. It was stated at the conference that China's foreign trade achieved double-digit growth in H1, maintaining a sound momentum. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, imports and exports of related products showed strong dynamism. In H1, imports and exports of computing hardware such as electronic components and computer parts reached 5.13 trillion yuan, up 56.6%. Smart products such as AI glasses, AI translators, and mechanical exoskeletons are rapidly iterating, with various innovative products emerging continuously. According to customs statistics, in H1 this year, China's goods trade imports and exports reached RMB25.47 trillion, up 16.9% YoY. Of this, exports stood at RMB14.73 trillion, up 13.4% and have maintained growth for 11 consecutive quarters; imports reached RMB10.74 trillion, up 22.1%, outpacing export growth by 8.7 percentage points. In June alone, imports and exports totaled RMB4.78 trillion, up 24.2% YoY, marking 17 consecutive months of growth. Looking at exports, the product structure further improved. In H1, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached RMB9.36 trillion, up 20.1%, accounting for 63.5% of total exports, up 3.5 percentage points YoY. High-tech product exports amounted to RMB3.26 trillion, up 39% YoY. (CCTV News)
PBOC: Today, it conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 236.5 billion yuan, with a bid amount of 236.5 billion yuan, a winning bid of 236.5 billion yuan, and an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous. (Jinshi Data APP)
US dollar side:
As of 11:42, the US dollar index was down 0.12% at 101.17. Markets await today's US CPI data and Warsh's speech for new clues on inflation and the Fed's policy path.
Market pricing shows expectations of at least one rate hike by the Fed by September have been almost fully priced in, with two hikes fully priced in by end-March next year. Earlier, Trump announced on social media that the US reimposed a blockade on Iran and plans to impose a 20% fee on any goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz. (Jinshi Data APP)
According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 58.3%, and a cumulative 25bp hike is 41.7%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 24.9%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 51.2%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 23.9%. (Jinshi Data APP)
Nick Timiraos, "Fed mouthpiece": Economists expect last month's drop in energy prices will pull down the overall CPI for June. But for the Fed, the core gauge is more important right now. The core CPI is expected to come in near May's 0.21% MoM; subsequently, market focus will shift to PPI and what its trends imply for PCE.
Fed Governor Waller said on Monday that if future data show inflation remains well above the 2% target, the Fed "may need to raise rates in the near term."He said that monetary policy was at a "crossroads." Waller said that this direction would be determined by new information, such as the CPI report to be released on Tuesday, and if the data showed unfavorable changes, the Fed was in a phase where it should not be "complacent." Waller said: "At the current policy level, inflation could still gradually pull back to the 2% target. But I am equally concerned that there may be another scenario where data in the coming weeks show that inflation will stay high, or even continue to rise, which would require tighter monetary policy in the near term." He said in particular that he was worried that recent inflation reports showed price pressures seemed to be broadening across the economy, extending beyond the impact of last year's import tariff hikes or recent rises in energy costs, and possibly reflecting more widespread systemic inflation, which would require tighter monetary policy. Waller said, "If core inflation comes in hot again this week, the FOMC will have to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. It will take months of persistently lower inflation data before we can consider that inflation is moving in the right direction." (Jin10 Data APP)
Other currencies:
According to a survey by foreign media, economists expected the Bank of Korea to deliver its first rate hike in over three years on Thursday, with another hike before year-end. South Korea's inflation rate rose to 3.2% in June, a two-and-a-half-year high, marking the fourth consecutive month above the BOK's 2% target. Inflation is expected to average around 3% in H2 this year, paving the way for a tightening cycle. Strong economic growth, rising home prices, and household debt that stays high have given policymakers room to tighten. The South Korean economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly six years in the first quarter. BOK Governor Shin Hyun-song said that given high oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict, inflation is expected to exceed the BOK's target for a considerable period, making a rate hike necessary. In the survey conducted from July 7 to 13, all but one of 37 economists expected the BOK to raise the benchmark rate to 2.75% on July 16. Most respondents (28 of 31) expected another hike by the end of Q4, bringing the policy rate to 3.00%. One forecast the benchmark rate to reach 3.25%, while the remaining two saw it staying at 2.75%. The median forecast showed the BOK raising the benchmark rate to 3.25% in Q1 2027 and holding it there until at least the end of next year, 25 basis points higher than the forecast in a May survey. (Jin10 Data APP)
Data:
Today will see the release of US June CPI (unadjusted YoY, seasonally adjusted MoM, seasonally adjusted core MoM, unadjusted core YoY), the US June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, and the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 27, among other data.
Crude Oil:
As of 11:42, crude oil prices on both exchanges extended gains from the previous trading day, with US crude oil up 2% and Brent crude oil up 1.64%. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Trump announcing the reimposition of the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, supported oil prices.
On the 13th local time, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), led by the US Navy, stated that the US military would commence a maritime blockade of all Iranian ports and Iran's coastal areas at 20:00 GMT on July 14 (04:00 Beijing time on July 15). The blockade applies to all vessels, regardless of the flag they fly. The blockade covers the entire Iranian coastline, including but not limited to all Iranian ports and oil terminals. The blockade will not impede the transit passage of neutral vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian destinations. Humanitarian shipments will be permitted passage, subject to inspection. (Jin10 Data APP)
Analysts at ING stated that the escalation of the conflict has already reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to low levels, reigniting concerns about tight oil supply in Q3. Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at global financial brokerage XS Group, said the current move in the energy market is not just a short-term technical rebound, but a market repricing of geopolitical risks. (CCTV)
Spot Market Overview:
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
![As delivery nears, some suppliers offload goods, shifting the center of Shanghai spot copper premiums lower overall [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/jlrsy20251217171711.jpg)
