US-Iran tensions ease, LME zinc surges [SMM Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,526/mt, marking the intraday low. Bears then reduced positions, and LME zinc drifted higher during the night session to touch a high of $3,638/mt, after which it consolidated, closing up at $3,616/mt, up $88/mt, or 2.49%. Trading volume increased to 15,870 lots, while open interest decreased by 3,793 lots to 268,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE zinc 2608 contract opened at 24,955 yuan/mt, briefly dipped to a low of 24,835 yuan/mt in early trading, then bulls added positions, pushing it up to a high of 25,035 yuan/mt, and finally closed up at 24,915 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt, or 0.48%. Trading volume decreased to 48,593 lots, while open interest increased by 3,787 lots to 84,775 lots.
Macro: US Fed announces list of heads for five new working groups; Meta denies computing power surplus: sometimes renting out is more valuable than using it yourself; SK Hynix reportedly set ADR issuance guidance price at $149, a 3.1% premium to the Korean stock closing price; Putin reportedly rejects peace talks call, may escalate situation in coming months; Israeli media: sources say Iran currently has no intention of dragging Israel into conflict; US officials say technical-level negotiations with Iran are continuing; GigaDevice expects H1 net profit up around 1,099% YoY; Statistics Bureau: In June 2026, the national consumer price index rose 1.0% YoY.
Spot:
Shanghai: Purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in Shanghai stood at 1.96, with shipment sentiment at 2.57. During the mainstream morning trading session, zinc futures consolidated. Downstream enterprises saw weak off-season orders, and overall inquiries and purchases yesterday remained mediocre. However, some suppliers in the market were unwilling to sell at low prices, and spot offers were raised.
Guangdong: Purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in Guangdong stood at 2.00, with sales sentiment at 2.40. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong in the morning session, but purchase willingness improved somewhat after price quotes. Market transactions yesterday improved slightly from previous days. Overall, end-use consumption was weak, factory inventories were ample, and many enterprises chose to stay on the sidelines and postpone stockpiling.
Tianjin: Purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in Tianjin stood at 1.78, with shipment sentiment at 2.55. Futures pulled back slightly yesterday but did not reach levels acceptable to downstream buyers. Downstream players mainly consumed inventories or relied on long-term contracts. Premiums edged down, and trading was dominated by traders. Overall market transactions were moderate.
Ningbo: A typhoon is about to land in Zhejiang, prompting some downstream players to actively pick up goods to their factories, mostly cargoes locked in at earlier prices. Trader quotations remained limited. Spot premiums edged up slightly yesterday. Raw material inventories at other plants were largely sufficient, and spot procurement remained need-based.
Inventory: On July 9, LME zinc inventory decreased by 400 mt to 115,525 mt, a decline of 0.35%. According to SMM’s market communication, as of July 9, total zinc ingot inventory across seven regions tracked by SMM stood at 264,800 mt, down 100 mt from July 2 and down 1,000 mt from July 6. China’s inventory decreased.
Zinc price outlook: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a large bullish candlestick. The window for U.S.-Iran conflict negotiations may reopen, easing concerns that an escalating war would push up inflation and interest rates. Macro sentiment improved. Coupled with LME inventories remaining persistently low, LME zinc rose and is expected to consolidate at highs today. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a small bearish candlestick. Macro sentiment improved, and driven by the LME market, SHFE zinc’s center shifted higher, but domestic consumption remained weak, causing SHFE zinc to pull back towards the close; it is expected to consolidate at highs today.

Data Source Statement: Data from sources other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and are provided for reference only; they do not constitute decision advice.