[Taiwan's buyers continue importing Chinese cold-rolled steel amid AD case uncertainty]

Driven by peak summer electricity demand in China, Japan and South Korea, Asia's seaborne thermal coal imports are projected to rise from 70.31 million tonnes in June to 73.16 million tonnes in July. China, the region's largest importer, is expected to receive 28.14 million tonnes of thermal coal in July, the highest level this year, as domestic coal production fell 9.7% year-on-year in June following intensified mine safety inspections while thermal power generation continued to expand. Imports are also forecast to increase to 10.46 million tonnes for Japan and 8.54 million tonnes for South Korea. Stronger buying from these three major importers has provided solid support for the seaborne thermal coal market, lifting the weekly Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg thermal coal index to a four-week high of US$132.76/t. Meanwhile, although the SGX 4,200 kcal/kg Indonesian coal contract has retreated from its recent peak, it remains 38% above its low at the beginning of the year. In contrast, India's seaborne thermal coal imports are expected to decline to 10.88 million tonnes in July due to elevated import prices, highlighting a divergence in Asian thermal coal demand.

Lamy says the EU's carbon border tax hits Ukraine's two biggest exports to the bloc, steel and electricity, and argues an exemption should be tied to Ukraine's decarbonization progress under its EU membership bid; several MEPs and a trade association have echoed the call. Ukraine was the EU's top CBAM-covered steel exporter as of end-2025, while Bruegel estimates the mechanism could cut Ukrainian power exports to the EU by over 60%. Ukrainian long-product exports already fell 42% YoY in 1H2026, with exporters facing CBAM charges of €58/tonne (vs. ~€18/tonne for EAF-based competitors) due to a high average carbon intensity of 2.1 tCO₂/tonne, a production structure that would take billions in investment to change.