[SMM Analysis] Lithium Carbonate Prices Fall Steadily, Downstream Dip-Buying Is Relatively Active

Today, the SMM spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate continued to fall from the previous trading day. In the futures market, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened lower at 159,600 yuan/mt. After the open, concentrated bearish positions drove prices quickly below the average price line, with a sustained decline. During the morning session, prices moved sideways in a narrow range below the average price line as bulls and bears engaged in a tug-of-war between 155,000 and 158,500 yuan/mt. Around noon, bears strengthened again, accelerating the price drop, which touched a low of 151,000 yuan/mt. In the final session, the price consolidated at lows before rebounding slightly to around 153,000 yuan/mt and closing with a 5.17% loss at 153,400 yuan/mt. Open interest added 5,434 lots.

In the spot market, downstream material plants continued to buy the dip, resulting in relatively active market enquiries and actual transactions, while upstream lithium chemical plants maintained a sentiment of holding prices firm. Lithium carbonate production continued to decline this week, mainly because some lithium chemical plants entered planned maintenance, leading to notably reduced output from spodumene- and lepidolite-based production lines. In contrast, production at salt lake and recycling facilities remained stable and continued to edge up. From the perspectives of market transactions and inventory changes, upstream lithium chemical plants still held prices firm and held back from selling in spot orders, with their willingness to sell only increasing when prices were at relatively high levels. However, influenced by production fluctuations, their in-factory inventories continued to destock. Downstream material plants engaged in warrant matching for the delivery month, with purchases mainly based on rigid demand, so their inventories also saw slight destocking. Traders' receipt of warrants increased somewhat, but downstream players did not show significant willingness to sell, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory among traders. Overall, inventory divergence across these segments was evident, and the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers persisted.