Overnight copper prices continued to fall with bears adding positions, and typhoon expectations boosted stockpiling, causing spot premiums to widen [SMM Copper Morning Briefing]

Thursday, July 9, 2026
Market Recap: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,206/mt, initially saw its center dip to $13,146/mt, then drifted higher and near the close touched a high of $13,270/mt before eventually settling at $13,255/mt, down 0.6%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots and open interest stood at 246,000 lots, down 972 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation. The most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 101,890 yuan/mt, then the center dipped to 101,640 yuan/mt, moved sideways before ticking up, and near the close touched a high of 102,230 yuan/mt, finally settling at 102,130 yuan/mt, down 0.7%. Trading volume was 41,100 lots and open interest 152,000 lots, up 1,954 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish positioning.
[SMM Copper Morning Brief] News:
(1) On Wednesday, July 8, Ivanhoe Mines said that copper production at its flagship Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the DRC is expected to increase in H2 2026 as extraction rates improve and stockpiles are drawn down, providing a boost to supply from one of the world’s largest copper projects. The Vancouver-based company’s Congolese subsidiary is one of the key sources of copper supply growth for the mining industry, while analysts expect the global copper market to tighten in 2026. The company lowered its copper production forecasts for 2026 and 2027 in April this year after seismic disturbances at the Kakula mine.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On July 8, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices were quoted at premiums of 100-170 yuan/mt against the front-month 2606 contract, averaging a premium of 135 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2607 contract moved sideways in a narrow range and then surged before pulling back slightly. It opened at 102,800 yuan/mt, mostly traded between 102,740 and 102,940 yuan/mt after the open, then quickly jumped to hit a high of 103,150 yuan/mt during the session, before edging lower towards the close to settle at 103,040 yuan/mt. The spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from a contango of 30 yuan/mt to a backwardation of 10 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract ranged from a loss of 40 yuan/mt to a profit of 40 yuan/mt. Looking to today, expectations of the impact from Typhoon Bavi continue to build, fueling strong buying interest among downstream copper processing enterprises. Some are stockpiling in advance on concerns about potential logistics disruptions, providing solid demand-side support. In terms of supplier behavior, after the quick digestion of low-priced cargoes during the day, available spot supply remains tight, and suppliers are strongly inclined to hold back from selling. Some are holding inventory in anticipation of higher prices, waiting to sell at more elevated levels, further lifting spot premiums. Import profit margins are near break-even, but short-term supply replenishment from outside China is limited. Overall, spot premiums for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract are expected to hold today, with a generally firm tone sustained. The focus going forward will be on the actual path of the typhoon and the sustainability of downstream stockpiling.
(2) Guangdong: On July 8, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 90 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,905 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,800 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt. Overall, with both inventory and copper prices declining, suppliers held prices firm while selling, and spot premiums moved higher.
(3) Imported copper: On July 8, the average warrant price rose $2/mt from the previous trading day to $82/mt (price range: $75-89/mt); the average B/L price rose $2/mt to $82/mt (price range: $74-90/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose $2/mt to $50/mt (price range: $45-55/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from July to mid-August.
(4) Secondary copper: On July 8, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 103,040 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 135 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt MoM. Today, secondary copper raw material prices remained flat MoM. The sales sentiment index for secondary copper raw materials rose to 2.31, and the purchasing sentiment index rose to 2.39. The price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,778 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt MoM. The price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 720 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices rose only slightly during the day. Although the price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod widened marginally, it remained below the advantage line. Secondary copper rod enterprises also reported no new orders from clients in recent days, and with insufficient new orders, their purchasing attitude toward secondary copper raw materials was one of bottom-fishing.
Prices: Macro side, the US attacked Iran again, and Trump stated that the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran had ended. The renewed escalation of the Middle East conflict pushed up oil prices, intensifying market concerns over inflation. Meanwhile, the US Fed minutes showed that officials are clearly divided on the rate path, with both rate hikes and cuts possible. Fundamentals side, supply side, low-priced cargoes were in tight circulation, with suppliers holding prices firmly, and spot availability remained tight. Demand side, downstream players, worried about typhoon-related logistics disruptions, moderately stockpiled in advance, providing phased support for demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research and decision-making advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]