Inventory Continuous Destocking Pushes Shanghai Spot Copper Premium Center Higher [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM July 2:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current-month 2606 contract were between parity and a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2607 contract moved sideways before edging down, opening at 1,023,000 yuan/mt. After opening, prices consolidated and edged up, largely trading between 102,240 yuan/mt and 102,450 yuan/mt, before declining slightly near the close to finish at 102,180 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts shifted from a contango of 60 yuan/mt to a backwardation of 10 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract ranged from a loss of 120 yuan/mt to a loss of 60 yuan/mt.

During the day, Shanghai copper cathode sales sentiment was 2.89, up 0.11 from the previous day, and buying sentiment was 2.83, up 0.11 from the previous day. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at parity to a premium of 40 yuan/mt, with brands such as Dajiang PC, Tiefeng, Dajiang HS, Zhongtiaoshan, and Jinchuan ISA Yongchang quoted at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, while Lufang, JCC, and Dajiang Large Plate were quoted at premiums of 30-40 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers slightly lowered their offers, with some Changzhou-origin cargoes, such as Zhongjin, quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt and quickly traded. High-quality copper was scarce and quoted higher, with Guixi, Jinchuan high-purity, and Jintun large plate at premiums of 80-100 yuan/mt. In the second session, suppliers showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, making it difficult to find low-priced cargoes. Buyers bid at parity but no deals were concluded, while other prices remained largely unchanged. Registered SX-EW copper BMKMOOK was quoted at discounts of 30-20 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper traded at discounts of 180-150 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the beginning-of-month purchasing cycle continues, downstream demand is still being released, and buying and selling sentiment have both rebounded, keeping market trading relatively active. From the supplier side, after low-priced cargoes were quickly absorbed, discounted cargoes are now hard to find, suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm has strengthened, and buyers' bids at parity failed to conclude. Due to scarce supply, high-quality copper premiums remained at a high of 80-100 yuan/mt, providing support to overall premiums. In terms of inventory, SMM data showed that social inventory in Shanghai stood at 126,500 mt, down 7,700 mt from Monday, while Jiangsu social inventory was 36,200 mt, down 5,000 mt from Monday. Both regions saw destocking. Overall, driven by the release of beginning-of-month demand, suppliers holding prices firm, and destocking, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow, continuing the overall strong trend.