[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On July 2, nickel prices were in the doldrums, and US June ADP employment increased by 98,000 people.

Published: Jul 2, 2026 11:45

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SMM Nickel July 2 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) US June ADP employment increased by 98,000, the lowest gain since March, missing market expectations of a 118,000 increase.

(2) New US Fed Chair Warsh reiterated on Wednesday (July 1) his preference to shrink the central bank’s balance sheet, but stressed that any such steps would be implemented only after thorough public communication and preparation.

Spot Market:

On July 2, SMM #1 refined nickel price rose 1,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. As for spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,150 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in the morning session, ending at 125,880 yuan/mt, down 0.41%.

The strength of the US dollar and a hawkish shift in market expectations for US Fed policy kept the macro environment challenging. Markets are focused on this week’s US ADP and non-farm payrolls data. In the near term, nickel prices are expected to be in the doldrums in the 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt range.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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