SMM, June 30 –
On June 15, 2026, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) website, the NDRC, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, the National Energy Administration, and other departments jointly issued the Notice on Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Upgrades in Key Industries. The notice's requirements for the electrolytic aluminum industry include: promoting large-scale reduction cells of 500 kA and above, and accelerating the upgrade of prebaked anode cells below 300 kA.
SMM has compiled publicly available market information. Excluding idled capacity, as of June 2026, cells of 300 kA and below accounted for 16% of total domestic capacity, of which approximately 1.75 million tonnes of capacity already have publicly announced replacement or upgrade projects. It should be noted that the Notice on Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Upgrades in Key Industries does not yet mandate compulsory phase-out provisions regarding cell amperage requirements. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is therefore not expected to be materially affected in the near term. Meanwhile, capacity replacement and upgrade projects across the domestic industry are progressing steadily, with replacement projects surfacing frequently. As of June 30, 2026, a total of 13 electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects had been publicly announced, of which 8 are upgrade and retrofitting projects.
As of June 2026, capacity equipped with 500 kA and above cells accounted for 12.9% of the total, a share expected to rise further going forward. Of the 13 publicly announced projects, 11 plan to build 500 kA or 600 kA cells, representing 93.1% of total proposed capacity under replacement projects.
SMM Commentary: Electrolytic aluminum output is unlikely to see significant near-term disruption. However, as replacement and upgrade efforts continue, power consumption per tonne of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is expected to decline further, helping the industry meet its energy conservation and carbon reduction targets.
