SHFE Aluminum Prices Decline, Casting Alloy Resilience Narrows Futures Spread

The latest statistics from the Electric Vehicle Resource Industry Research Institute show that the overall penetration rate of new energy logistics vehicles in China climbed to 49.7% in June 2026, a record high and just one step away from the 50% threshold. Compared with the 46.1% penetration rate at the end of 2025, it rose by 3.6 percentage points in half a year. In H1 2026, the overall penetration rate reached 39.0%, which was 6.6 percentage points higher than the 2025 full-year average of 32.4%, as the industry's electrification penetration accelerates toward a tipping point.

Mercedes-Benz will become the first automaker in Europe to use Hydro Circal recycled aluminum in series-production models, which will be its next-generation large EVs. The new material contains at least 75% post-consumer recycled aluminum, while the aluminum semis currently supplied by Hydro have a recycled content of around 25%.

According to the latest production schedule report from ChinaIOL for household air conditioners, the domestic sales production schedule for August 2026 stands at 5.87 million units, down 24.1% compared to actual domestic sales in the same period last year. The production schedule figure was slightly revised down again from the earlier estimate. Entering August and September, most compressor and air conditioner enterprises are about to begin equipment maintenance and factory vacations. Affected by the holidays, production schedule volumes were trimmed to varying degrees. On the channel side, inventory is high, and dealers show weak willingness to restock. With the weakening start of the cooling season, the practice of restocking and pushing inventory is becoming difficult to sustain.