SMM June 29 news:
Metal markets:
As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market saw nearly broad gains. SHFE copper rose 1.11%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.48%, SHFE lead fell 0.43%, SHFE zinc gained 2.01%, SHFE tin increased 1.19%, and SHFE nickel inched up 0.1%.
In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 1.08%, the most-traded alumina contract added 0.86%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract jumped 2.27%, the most-traded silicon metal contract ticked up 0.24%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.59%.
Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore added 0.47%, rebar and HRC edged lower, and stainless steel inched up 0.03%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract jumped 2.25%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 1.32%.
In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:43, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.29%, LME aluminum fell 0.44%, LME lead added 0.24%, LME zinc dipped 0.1%, LME tin fell 0.18%, and LME nickel inched up.
In precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.84%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 1.23%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 2.22%.
In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract surged 2.77%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract jumped 3.78%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight index futures contract ticked up 0.19% to 3,715 points.
Selected futures midday prices as of 11:43 on June 29:
Spot Market and Fundamentals
Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 20 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, up 535 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 525 yuan/mt from the previous trading day...
Macro Front
China:
[Ministry of Commerce Adds 20 Japanese Entities to Export Control List] Ministry of Commerce: To safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it has been decided to add 20 Japanese entities, including the National Institute for Defense Studies, which are involved in enhancing Japan's military capabilities, to the export control list. First, the export of dual-use items to the above 20 entities by operators is prohibited, and overseas organizations and individuals are prohibited from transferring or providing dual-use items originating in the People's Republic of China to the above 20 entities; ongoing related activities must be immediately ceased. II. If export is genuinely necessary under special circumstances, the exporter shall apply to the Ministry of Commerce.
[China's highest-latitude solar thermal power station begins operation] Today (June 29), the first solar thermal power station in Northeast China — the 100,000 kW CGN Jixi Base solar thermal power station — was put into operation in Da'an City, Jilin Province, marking a new breakthrough in the application of solar thermal power technology in high-latitude, severely cold regions of China. Located at 45.36 degrees north latitude in a severe cold climate zone, it is China's highest-latitude solar thermal station, with an installed capacity of 100,000 kW, a heat storage duration of up to 8 hours, and the ability to operate safely, stably, and continuously 24 hours a day. This type of station primarily uses large arrays of mirrors to focus sunlight onto heat collection devices, thereby achieving energy storage. (CCTV News)
The PBOC conducted a 157.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. Today, 476.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. At the same time, the PBOC conducted a 300 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation.
For the US dollar:
As of 11:43, the US dollar index was down 0.05% at 101.33. According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69.5%, with a 30.5% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For September, the probabilities are: unchanged (40.4%), cumulative 25bp hike (46.9%), cumulative 50bp hike (12.8%). (Jin10 Data APP)
Gavekal Research noted in a report: "In 2025, the market was widely concerned that Trump would undermine the independence of US monetary policy by nominating a political puppet as Fed Chairman, forcing the Fed to cut interest rates and causing inflation to consistently exceed the Fed's 2% target." "Developments over the past seven months have made that scenario unlikely." These developments include the appointment of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed, and the reappointment of 11 out of 12 regional Fed presidents. At the first Fed meeting chaired by Warsh earlier this month, the Fed underscored its commitment to price stability, surprising some market participants who had expected a more dovish stance under the new chair. (Jin10 Data APP)
According to "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos, sources revealed that the selection process for the new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has reached an impasse. The initial slate of candidates failed to produce a final pick, forcing the bank to restart the selection process, which has already lasted seven months. On the surface, this is merely a procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the US Fed's independence is facing serious challenges. The presidents of the regional Federal Reserve Banks are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid being influenced by Washington's political operations. (Jin10 Data APP)
Data wise:
Data releases today will include the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, the Eurozone June economic sentiment index, and the US June Dallas Fed business activity index, among others. Also in focus: the European Central Bank is hosting the Global Central Banking Forum in Sintra, through July 1; and the 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference is being held from June 29 to 30.
Crude oil wise:
As of 11:43 a.m., oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.14% and Brent up 0.87%. The US and Iran clashed militarily again over the weekend, negotiations stalled, and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz were reignited, supporting oil prices.
According to CCTV news reporters on June 28, a senior US official revealed that both sides have agreed to stop attacking each other and plan to meet on June 30 in the Qatari capital to resolve the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. However, as of now, neither the US and Iran nor the mediators Pakistan and Qatar have made any official statement. (Wall Street Insights)
A report released by energy services company Baker Hughes on Friday showed that the number of new drilling rigs added by US energy companies in a single week hit a new high since June 2022. The total number of oil and gas drilling rigs, an early indicator of future production, increased by 10 in the week ending June 29, the largest weekly increase in four years. The total rig count reached 573, the highest level since May 2025. Baker Hughes stated that this week's increase brought the total rig count 26 higher YoY, an increase of 5%. The company said the number of oil rigs increased by 7 to 440 this week, the highest since June 2025. Natural gas rigs increased by 3 to 125, while rigs classified as other remained unchanged at 8. (Jin10 Data APP)
Furthermore, Russian President Putin stated that car owners and various enterprises still face difficulties in fuel supply, with queuing common at gas stations across the country. Affected by the shutdown of multiple refineries, Russia is introducing measures to stabilize the domestic market, and Putin confirmed that a total ban on diesel exports is one of the options being discussed. After meetings with oil producers and government departments on Friday, the Russian Energy Ministry recommended against imposing a diesel export ban for now, citing that it could cause issues such as diesel inventory buildup; the government will reassess the market situation on Monday. Jinshi Data App)
Spot Market Overview:
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