Supply-demand dynamics show mixed signals, coinciding with month-end weakening demand; lead prices remain in the doldrums in the short term [SMM Lead Morning News]

SMM, June 29 –

Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,913/mt. It continued to slide during Asian trading and then consolidated in a narrow range at a low level of $1,903.5-1,906/mt. Entering European and US trading hours, fund inflows lifted the contract, causing it to rebound amid fluctuations. It rose all the way to a daily high of $1,916.5/mt, but encountered heavy selling pressure and lacked sustainable bullish momentum. After peaking, it turned lower again, falling to a low of $1,901/mt, and finally settled at $1,901.5/mt, down $11/mt, a decline of 0.58%.

Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,220 yuan/mt. In early trading, it drifted lower, gradually breaking below the daily moving average, and dipped to 16,135 yuan/mt. After a brief sideways consolidation mid-session, it recovered some losses and finally closed at 16,170 yuan/mt, forming a small bearish candlestick. It was down 85 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.52%.

This week, production cuts and suspensions at secondary lead smelters continued to increase. On the primary lead side, multiple smelters in Henan and Yunnan that had previously undergone maintenance resumed production one after another. The industry operating rate rose WoW, and bullish and bearish factors interwove on the supply side. On the consumption side, as month-end approached, large downstream enterprises entered the mid-year account closing and concentrated inventory check phase, generally suspending raw material procurement, and some orders were postponed until July. Fundamentals lacked strong support. On the sentiment front, attention should be paid to the fluctuations that the easing of US-Iran tensions may bring to the overall nonferrous metals sector. In summary, lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.