This week, LME copper prices retreated from highs, drifting lower after hitting a high at Monday’s open. Mid-week, prices briefly fell to a low of $12,988/mt, with a weekly decline of about 3.3%. The pullback in copper prices led to a slight spike in payable indicators, pushing up the overall discount range by about 0.2%. By specific grade, bare bright copper saw its main transaction coefficient remain high at 98.5%–99%, while No.1 copper semis’ transaction range was concentrated at 97%–98%. In contrast, quotes for No.2 copper semis showed clear divergence: with precious metal prices staying high, smelters’ acceptance of No.2 copper semis with high gold and silver content rose significantly, with quotes reaching 97.5%–98%, even exceeding those for No.1 copper semis in a price inversion. Such high-gold-and-silver-content copper semis mainly originate from the Americas, so quotes for Americas-origin No.2 copper semis were notably higher than from other regions. Meanwhile, No.2 copper semis from Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, generally low in gold and silver content, saw relatively pressured quotes, with transaction ranges mostly concentrated at 95%–96%.
However, constrained by the current overall supply-demand weakness, actual market transactions this week were relatively sluggish. On one hand, payable indicators were already at historical highs, limiting room for further upside. On the other, although copper prices pulled back and enterprises’ tolerance for high prices gradually improved, the absolutely elevated copper prices still significantly suppressed purchasing sentiment. In addition, macro and seasonal factors further dragged on major Asian consumer markets: Japan, one of the key consumers, was about to face its annual settlement window on June 30, and some enterprises had already stopped purchasing in advance. At the same time, Japanese scrapyards were engaged in Q3 quarterly supply negotiations with downstream consumers, causing them to generally slow down their current purchasing pace. Compounding this, the yen and won exchange rates against the US dollar remained at low levels, driving up local enterprises’ ex-China procurement costs and prompting traders in both regions to adopt a generally cautious stance toward overseas purchases. Under the combined weight of falling copper prices and tight overall market supply, ex-China scrapyards currently hold a strong sentiment of holding back from selling, and the near-term market stalemate is expected to continue into next week.
