Silver Market Price Review and Expectations Brief (June 25, 2026) [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

[Price Review]

This week (6.22-6.25) silver prices stayed high but under pressure, plunging sharply. The precious metals price center moved notably lower WoW amid multiple bearish macro factors. The US Fed's hawkish stance continued to weigh on sentiment, and several foreign investment banks raised their expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in the latest reports. Along with a stronger US dollar index, this created significant downward pressure on precious metals. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that the US will maintain its strong dollar policy, and stressed that the future reintegration of countries like Iran and Venezuela into the dollar system would further consolidate the dollar's international standing. As a result, the US dollar index continued to rebound. On the geopolitical front, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement continued to advance, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returned to normal. On the industrial demand side, mainstream quotations for national standard silver ingots versus TD in the Shanghai market were basically flat WoW, with the market transaction center still mainly concentrated at Shanghai Gold Exchange TD parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg. As silver prices continued to decline, the procurement pace of downstream enterprises recovered somewhat, but overall was still dominated by just-in-time procurement, with limited willingness to stockpile in bulk and some enterprises showing noticeable fear of further price declines. On the inventory front, social inventories of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw slight destocking, with ongoing consumption from maintenance at some smelters and deliveries of export orders, but the supportive effect of inventory factors on prices was limited. As for the gold/silver ratio, by June 24 the LBMA gold/silver ratio had rebounded to around 67, with silver underperforming gold.

[Key Data]

Bearish:

1. US Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated the strong dollar stance, stating that the dollar's international status would be further strengthened, driving the US dollar index to continue rebounding.

2. The hawkish impact of the Fed's June meeting continued to weigh, and several foreign investment banks raised their expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in the latest reports.

3. US bond yields stayed high, with real rates keeping continuous pressure on precious metals, while capital allocation preferences remained skewed toward dollar assets.

[Near-Term Focus]

June 26: US Q1 GDP final reading;

June 27: US May core PCE price index;

July 3: US June non-farm payrolls data;

Key focus: changes in US inflation data, Fed official remarks, US dollar index movements, and subsequent developments in the Middle East situation.

[Price Forecast]

Silver is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend next week. The current core market logic is the Fed's policy path and the US dollar’s movement. After the June meeting, the Fed's hawkish stance continues to weigh, and Bessent's recent strong dollar remarks have pushed the US dollar index higher. At the same time, US bond yields stay high, creating multiple macro pressures on silver. On the domestic fundamental side, the spot market overall maintained a just-in-time procurement pattern. Spot silver ingot social inventory continued destocking, but this was insufficient to alter the current macro-driven adjustment trend. The mainstream traded price for spot silver ingot is expected to remain within a range of parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg over the SGE TD price, and further expansion of the premium will be difficult in the short term. Overall, with a strengthening US dollar and the US Fed maintaining a hawkish stance, silver still faces adjustment pressure in the near term. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. Watch for further guidance from the US core PCE data on market expectations.