Copper price pullback activates buying to digest low-priced cargoes, and suppliers hold prices firm, supporting a narrower discount [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

Published: Jun 25, 2026 11:48

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[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Tomorrow, following a pullback in copper prices during last night’s night session, some downstream enterprises actively bought the dip, driving a notable increase in intraday procurement demand. After low-priced cargo was quickly absorbed, suppliers showed signs of holding prices firm, weakening the momentum for subsequent low-price selling. Market structure, the inter-month spread has shifted to a backwardation structure, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and supporting spot discounts. Supply side, during the night session, the import window briefly opened, potentially bringing in some overseas supply replenishment later. Overall, with combined support from the backwardation structure and downstream dip-buying, spot SHFE copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to maintain discounts tomorrow, with the discount magnitude possibly narrowing slightly.

SMM June 25:

In the early session, the SHFE copper 2607 contract showed a trend of declining first and then rising. The opening price was 101,430 yuan/mt, after which the price pulled back slightly, dipping to a low of 100,880 yuan/mt intraday. The price then stabilized and began to rebound, with the closing price at 101,400 yuan/mt. The price spread between the two nearby contracts ranged from contango 10 yuan/mt to backwardation 60 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the front-month 2607 contract ranged from a loss of 130 yuan/mt to a loss of 20 yuan/mt.

During the day, the sales sentiment for Shanghai copper cathode was 2.80, down 0.09 MoM, and the procurement sentiment was 2.93, up 0.16 MoM, with historical data available for query in the database. At the start of the early session, suppliers' first-round offers for standard-quality copper were at discounts of 70–30 yuan/mt, among which JCC, Lufang, etc. offered at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, while Dajiang PC, Tiefeng, Zhongtiaoshan, etc. offered at discounts of 70–50 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers further lowered offers, with Tiefeng, Zhongtiaoshan, etc. offering at discounts of 80–70 yuan/mt, and Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, Jinfeng offering at EXW parity. High-quality copper Jinchuan plate and Jintun plate were offered at premiums of 10–20 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper such as BMK was quoted at discounts of 80–60 yuan/mt. Transactions were relatively active, with some low-priced materials quickly transacted. As the second phase began, low-priced materials became hard to find in the market, and suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm emerged. Non-registered copper was transacted at discounts of 180–150 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices pulled back in the night session yesterday, prompting some downstream enterprises to actively lock in prices at the dip. Procurement demand rose significantly during the day. After low-priced materials were quickly absorbed, suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm emerged, and the impetus for selling at lower prices diminished subsequently. From a market structure perspective, the price spread between the two nearby contracts has shifted to backwardation, reducing the willingness to sell at low prices and providing support for spot discounts. On the supply side, the import window briefly opened during the night session, with potential overseas cargo supply replenishment later. Overall, under the combined effect of the backwardation structure support and downstream dip-buying, spot copper prices against the SHFE 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, with the discount range likely to narrow slightly.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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