Metals broadly declined, with SHFE tin falling below 390,000 intraday, lithium carbonate up nearly 2%, SHFE gold falling for the fifth straight day, and SHFE silver plunging over 5% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM June 24 News:

Metal markets:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 0.95%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.11%, SHFE lead dipped 0.12%, SHFE zinc declined 1.7%, SHFE nickel lost 1.94%, and SHFE tin slumped 4.64%, hitting an intraday low of 388,220 yuan/mt.

In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract fell 1.01%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged up 0.52%. Lithium carbonate's most-traded contract rose 1.67%. Silicon metal's most-traded contract dipped slightly. Polysilicon's most-traded futures contract gained 0.28%.

Ferrous metals showed mixed performance: iron ore rose 0.68%, rebar edged slightly lower, hot-rolled coil edged up, and stainless steel dropped 1.27%. On the coking coal and coke front, the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 0.64%, and the most-traded coke futures contract remained on par with 1,953.5 yuan/mt.

In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:38, LME metals were nearly all in negative territory. LME copper edged up 0.24%, LME aluminum fell 0.67%, and LME lead dropped 0.44%. Both LME zinc and LME tin fell within 0.5%. LME nickel dipped slightly.

In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 1.86% and COMEX silver dropped 1.34%. In China's precious metals market, the most-traded SHFE gold contract extended its four-day losing streak by falling another 2.37%, hitting an intraday low of 886.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract extended its three-day decline by falling another 5.08%.

Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.6% and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 1.41%.

As of the midday break, the most-traded container shipping futures index contract rose 0.79%, at 3,745 points.

Midday futures market quotes as of 11:38 on June 24:

Spot Market and Fundamentals

Copper: Today, Guangdong's spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,310 yuan/mt, down 975 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,200 yuan/mt, down 970 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong's inventory has increased for four consecutive trading days, mainly driven by rising arrivals...

Macro Front

Domestic developments:

[Three government departments to implement the 2026 insurance compensation policy for first (set of) major technical equipment] The General Offices of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice on implementing the 2026 insurance compensation policy for first (set of) major technical equipment. The notice states that complete equipment will generally be supported based on the number of units (sets); core systems, key parts, and critical supporting and basic components for major technical equipment will generally be supported based on the number of batches. High-end industrial mother machines, specialized electronic equipment, new-type agricultural machinery, and precision instruments—complete machines with a lower per-unit value—can be supported on a batch basis; high-value single items like aircraft engines and marine engines can be supported on a unit (set) basis.

[Ultra-long special government bonds have facilitated the renewal of over 360,000 elevators] On the 24th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that since the state included the renewal and renovation of old residential elevators within the scope of ultra-long special government bond funding, local authorities have actively leveraged policy support to vigorously promote these upgrades, facilitating residents' travel. More than 360,000 old residential elevators have been renewed cumulatively. (CCTV News)

[PBOC net injects 242.2 billion yuan via reverse repos today] The PBOC conducted 662.5 billion yuan in seven-day reverse repos today at an operating rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous session. A total of 420.3 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today.

US dollar:

As of 11:38, the US dollar index edged up 0.1% to 101.47. Data: On June 24, S&P Global reported that the preliminary US composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June rose to 52.2, up from the prior figure of 51.5 and exceeding the market expectation of 52.1, reaching a five-month high and indicating continued expansion in US business activity. By sector, manufacturing performance was particularly strong. New order growth hit its fastest rate in over four years, driving a marked upturn in factory production. The preliminary US manufacturing PMI for June rose to 55.7, the highest since May 2022, exceeding the expected 54.6 and the prior 55.1. Meanwhile, the service sector also maintained expansionary momentum. The preliminary services PMI for June rose to 51.3, a four-month high, surpassing the expected 51.1 and the prior 50.7. At the same time, easing cost pressures due to reduced tensions in the Middle East also boosted business confidence. However, the survey also indicated that issues such as supply chain delays, rising raw material prices, and a slowdown in hiring persist, suggesting the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid. (From Wall Street News APP)

According to CNBC, the hunt for a new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, now in its seventh month, is drawing close scrutiny. The process is seen as a window into how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will reshape the interest-rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The process has shifted as Warsh began exerting his influence at the US Fed. According to two people familiar with the search process, the Fed had already been identifying candidates for the Atlanta Fed president role under former Chair Powell. However, the process was temporarily halted to allow Warsh to lead the appointment. Both people spoke on condition of anonymity because the search remains ongoing. They said Michael Faulkender, a former senior Treasury official in the Trump administration, has since been added to the list of candidates being considered for the Atlanta Fed job. It remains unclear if Faulkender is still a candidate. (From Jinshi APP)

According to the CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the US Fed holding rates steady in July stands at 62.6%, while the chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate increase is 37.4%. The probability of holding rates steady through September is 29.8%, versus a 50.6% chance of a cumulative 25 bp hike and a 19.6% chance of a cumulative 50 bp hike.

Other currencies:

Data released on Wednesday showed that Australia's consumer price index (CPI) fell in May, driven by lower fuel costs and declining demand for holiday travel. However, core inflation remained above expectations, suggesting that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed that the CPI fell 0.7% MoM in May, with the YoY growth rate slowing to 4%, down from the prior 4.2%. The market had expected a 0.4% MoM decline and 4.3% YoY growth. However, core inflation, which strips out volatile items, rose 0.4% MoM in May, above the expected 0.3%, pushing the annualized rate to 3.6%. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already raised rates three times this year in an effort to bring core inflation back within its 2% to 3% target band.

The Bank of Japan, in minutes from last week's board meeting, signaled the necessity of further raising its benchmark interest rate. At that meeting, the BoJ raised its policy rate to the highest level since 1995. According to the minutes released Wednesday, one board member stated: "Given that core CPI inflation has approached 2% and financial conditions are accommodative, the Bank should continue to raise the policy rate in response to current economic, inflation, and financial conditions." The BoJ implemented its first rate hike since last December last week and made it clear that further increases are ahead, though the minutes offered no clear guidance on the timing of the next move. Still, the minutes reinforced market expectations for another rate hike by year-end. A survey of economists taken the day after the meeting showed about 90% of respondents expect another rate increase before December, with over a third identifying October as the next adjustment window. Economists now expect the terminal rate for this hiking cycle to reach 1.75%, up from the 1.5% projected in a survey earlier this month. (From Jinshi APP)

Data:

Today's releases include Australia's May unadjusted CPI YoY, Germany's June IFO Business Climate Index, Switzerland's June ZEW Investor Confidence Index, the US Q1 current account, and US May new home sales annualized total. Also on the radar: The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; the 2026 Mobile World Congress Shanghai runs through June 26.

Crude oil:

As of 11:38, prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell, with US crude oil down 1.08% and Brent crude oil down 0.87%. International crude oil prices remain under pressure following the resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after a temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran. (Wall Street News)

Iran's ambassador in Geneva stated that the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels, and significant volumes of oil have been transported through the waterway in recent days. (From Jinshi APP)

On June 23 local time, US President Trump said the US is "committed to reaching a fair deal with Iran" to end the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. He stated that just the previous day (June 22), 19 million barrels of oil were transported through the Strait. Trump reiterated that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons" and said that related work is progressing well. (CCTV)

Spot Market Overview:

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