Initial Decline Followed by Rise amid Wild Swings, Consolidation at Highs Continues amid Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, June 22, 2026

Market Review:

Last week, the most-traded SHFE tin contract exhibited wild swings, falling first then rebounding, with fluctuations concentrated within the range of 394,000–425,000 yuan/mt. At the start of the week, weighed by rate hike expectations outside China, the price briefly dipped to around 394,000 yuan/mt. Subsequently, supported by the signing of a geopolitical easing agreement and the demand narratives for semiconductors and AI computing power, the futures rebounded back above 420,000 yuan/mt. However, towards the weekend, the US Fed sent hawkish signals, and the price center pulled back again to around 412,000 yuan/mt. In the tin ingot spot market, overall transactions were stagnant and sluggish. When prices declined last week, previously pent-up rigid procurement demand was briefly released. As prices rebounded to high levels last week, downstream enterprises’ willingness to take delivery weakened notably, inquiries and actual order follow-through were scarce, and the market returned to a wait-and-see pattern dominated by small-volume rigid demand purchases on dips, with trading sentiment staying subdued.

Market Forecast:

On the international macro front, the global AI industry’s boom continues to climb. Demand for AI chips and high-end memory chips is robust, driving undersupply of key semiconductor consumables such as electronic special gases, and providing support for long-term downstream consumption expectations for tin. SK Hynix announced it is supplying samples of next-generation HBM4E, and Apple also said it plans to raise product prices to cope with surging memory chip costs, reflecting the tech industry’s rigid demand for upstream resources. However, in the short term, soaring component prices may dampen the pace of end-user consumer electronics shipments.

China’s tin market presented a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers overall. On the supply side, most smelters focused on stable production, and overall refined tin output in June is expected to be steady. On the demand side, downstream solder enterprises were cautious in procurement. Coupled with the electronics industry entering the traditional off-season, trading sentiment in the spot market was generally subdued. After tin prices returned to high levels during the week, downstream only maintained rigid demand small-volume purchases, speculative buying almost vanished, and transactions were sluggish. However, when prices pulled back to low levels last week, downstream willingness to take delivery clearly strengthened, indicating that the market has bottom support, yet the rise lacks sustained buying momentum. In summary, the long-term demand logic driven by new energy and AI remains solid, but high tin prices in the short term suppress downstream restocking willingness, leaving the spot market in a state of “prices without volume.” Tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs this week, with insufficient momentum for a major one-sided breakout. Investors should maintain a range-trading approach, watch for downstream reactions to price pullbacks and macro policy shifts, and be cautious about chasing highs.