SMM, June 20:
Metal markets:
The overnight domestic base metals market was closed. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%.
The overnight ferrous metals market was closed. Looking back at the performance of ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%, and HRC fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%.
In the overnight overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%, LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%, LME zinc fell 2.05%, LME tin rose 0.19%, and LME nickel fell 1.41%.
Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline with a 1.55% drop for the week; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking a sixth straight weekly decline with a 4.51% drop for the week. The overnight most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed, with SHFE gold posting a weekly gain of 4.11%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed, with SHFE silver posting a weekly gain of 5.25%.
Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold price forecast by $500, no longer expecting the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note: “We revise our December gold target down to $4,900/oz (from $5,400), implying gold prices are still expected to rise in H2, but by less than previously anticipated. We remain structurally constructive on gold but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks.” The analysts said the outlook cut was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back US interest rate cut expectations to June and December next year, from previously December 2026 and March 2027, as well as lower projected gold ETF inflows. They also added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the “surprisingly hawkish” first Fed meeting under Warsh. (Jin10 Data)
Overnight closing prices as of 7:47 AM June 20:
Macro front
China:
[NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration issued guidance on the safe development and application of AI in the banking and insurance industry. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications.
[Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News)
[Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy.
[Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Fully utilize the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support various cities and regions to improve the database of publicly listed firm candidates and merger and acquisition projects, collaborate with exchanges, brokerages, and other institutions to provide detailed and thorough full-cycle advisory services for firms planning to list, optimize approval processes for land use rights, real estate, and equity transfers involved in mergers and acquisitions of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of technology bonds, green bonds, and asset securitization products. (From Wall Street CN APP)
[Weifang: Expand the Implementation of the 2026 Consumer Product Trade-in Category Subsidy Activity] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued a notice on expanding the implementation of the 2026 consumer product trade-in category subsidy activity in Weifang. According to unified provincial categories and standards, subsidies will be provided to individual consumers for purchasing products such as range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, floor-sweeping robots (including floor washers), walking-assist exoskeleton robots, and smart toilets. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products within Weifang City will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final selling price after deducting all discounts at various stages; each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with the maximum subsidy per item not exceeding 1,500 yuan, and the place of purchase for the subsidized products must be within the administrative area of Weifang City. (Published by Weifang)
[Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on the Launch of Market Orders and Related Trading Order Quantities] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, market orders will be launched starting from July 6, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the night of July 3, 2026). Market orders will apply to all listed futures and options varieties. Limit orders will have a minimum order quantity of 1 lot per transaction, with a maximum order quantity of 500 lots for futures varieties and 100 lots for options varieties. Market orders will have a minimum order quantity of 1 lot per transaction, with a maximum order quantity of 60 lots for futures varieties and 30 lots for options varieties. Settlement price trading orders will have a minimum order quantity of 1 lot per transaction and a maximum order quantity of 500 lots.
USD Aspect:
Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, reaching a high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69 during the session. On the weekly chart, the US dollar index rose, with a weekly gain of 0.97%. Market pricing indicates that bets on US Fed rate hikes have increased, fully pricing in expectations of a 25 basis point hike in September. Data shows that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, are heavily buying options, betting that the US dollar will strengthen further after the US Fed sends a hawkish signal this week, reinforcing US rate hike expectations. According to traders, leveraged funds began buying dollar call options on Wednesday, which will increase in value if the dollar appreciates. As investors digested the anti-inflation rhetoric from new Fed Chairman Warsh, the demand continued into Thursday. James Swindell, Senior FX Options Trader at Barclays Bank in London, said: "We are seeing significant demand for USD call options across the board, particularly in EUR/USD and GBP/USD." (From Jinshi Data APP)
According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike stands at 39.6%. By September, the probability of the US Fed maintaining the current rate level is 31.2%, with a 49.6% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 19.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (From Jinshi Data APP)
In other currency news:
ECB Chief Economist Lane stated on Thursday that Eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. To address the surge in energy costs since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict at the end of February, the ECB raised rates last week for the first time in nearly three years. However, oil and natural gas prices have since fallen sharply following the announcement of a peace agreement between Iran and the US. Lane noted that the ECB has no doubts about the correctness of the rate hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for an extended period. He said: "We see food prices going up, and also goods and services prices moving higher. Even under a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified." Additionally, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch stated: If we see services inflation rise, we could consider another 25bp rate hike for safety. If the data is unclear, I see no need to rush into action. (Jinshi Data)
[Bank of England Keeps Rates Unchanged in 7-2 Vote, Says It Will Monitor Middle East Closely] The Bank of England (BOE) held its rate at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices "encouraging," though two policymakers voted for an immediate 25bp hike amid persistent inflation concerns. External member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill—the sole dissenter in April—in voting to raise the rate immediately to 4%, citing an unstable price outlook despite the recent US-Iran ceasefire. (From Wall Street News APP)
On the Macro Front:
Next week will see the release of data including China's 1-Year Loan Prime Rate as of June 22, Canada's Monthly CPI for May, the Eurozone's Preliminary Consumer Confidence Index for June, France's Flash Manufacturing PMI for June, Germany's Flash Manufacturing PMI for June, the Eurozone's Flash Manufacturing PMI for June, the UK's Flash Manufacturing PMI for June, the UK's Flash Services PMI for June, the UK's CBI Industrial Orders Difference for June, the Weekly Change in US ADP Employment as of the Week of June 6, the US S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI for June, the US S&P Global Flash Services PMI for June, the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June, Australia's Unadjusted Annual CPI for May, Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for June, Switzerland's ZEW Investor Confidence Index for June, the US Current Account for Q1, US New Home Sales Annualized for May, Australia's Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate for May, Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence Index for July, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 20, the US Annual Core PCE Price Index for May, the US Monthly Personal Spending for May, the Final Annualized Quarterly Real GDP for Q1, the Preliminary Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures for Q1, the Final Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures for Q1, the Final Annualized Core PCE Price Index for Q1, the US Monthly Core PCE Price Index for May, the US Monthly Durable Goods Orders for May, the Final University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for June, and the Final One-Year Inflation Expectations for June.
In addition, next week's key events to watch include: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at the European Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivers a speech; the 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (Summer Davos) is held in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releases the Summary of Opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; Nvidia holds its annual general meeting; the Bank of Canada releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the US Fed releases results of its annual bank stress tests; BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda attends a central bank lecture event organized by the IMF; today, 300 billion yuan of one-year MLF and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President John Williams speaks; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks.
Crude oil:
Overnight, both oil futures rose: WTI gained 0.91% and Brent gained 0.47%. Weekly: WTI futures fell for a second straight week, dropping 9.83% during the week; Brent futures also fell for a second week, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, struggled to rebound and turned negative several times during the session, hitting a daily low after news of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. As reports emerged that the two sides continued to strike each other after the ceasefire, prices turned higher again in late European trading. Brent crude struggled around the $80 mark throughout the day. (Wall Street News)
Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that negotiations on a permanent agreement with the US will only begin after the war in Lebanon ends permanently, the US fully lifts its blockade, grants waivers on Iranian oil, and releases Iran’s frozen assets. (Jin10 Data App)
Iran is shipping large volumes of oil that had been stranded due to the US blockade, a potentially positive development for Tehran after it signed a temporary peace deal with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg shows that this week, a total of 11 tankers carrying 20 million barrels of crude oil departed from Iran’s Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman. Previously, the US military had prevented these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean in a bid to limit Tehran’s access to oil dollars. (Jin10 Data App)
In addition, data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) showed that as of the week ending June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude futures decreased by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data App)
Furthermore, the NYMEX WTI July crude oil futures will be affected by contract rollover. The final floor trading session will be completed at 2:30 on June 23, and the electronic trading final session at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to exchange expiration and rollover announcements to manage risks. Additionally, the expiration dates of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms are typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiry. Please pay close attention to this.
![Zinc Concentrate TCs Continue to Decline, SHFE Zinc Maintains Fluctuating Trend [SMM Zinc Futures Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/oTrxc20251217171755.jpg)
![In the short term, ferrous metals will remain under pressure [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/YxksS20251217171748.jpg)
