Overnight Copper Prices Edged Up, Bears Reduced Positions, Sluggish Trading after Contract Rollover, Spot Premiums under Pressure [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

June 16, 2026, Tuesday
Overnight Trading: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,744/mt, dipped to $13,725/mt in early trading, then its price center fluctuated upward to $13,822.5/mt. Thereafter, the center swung wildly, finally closing at $13,796.5/mt, up 0.61%. Trading volume was 16,600 lots and open interest was 263,000 lots, a decrease of 3,509 lots from the previous trading day, as bears reduced their positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,490 yuan/mt, immediately hitting a high of 105,700 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 105,060 yuan/mt near the end of trading, and finally closed at 105,210 yuan/mt, down 0.14%. Trading volume was 25,000 lots and open interest was 147,000 lots, down by 1,715 lots from the previous trading day, as bulls reduced their positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Brief] News:
(1) Copper producer Glencore Canada announced on June 12 the resumption of work on the air emission reduction project at the Horne Smelter, marking a key step in improving environmental performance. The company welcomed the Quebec provincial government's adoption of Bill 11, stating that it establishes a stable regulatory framework for the Horne Smelter's operations through 2033. This regulatory certainty allows the company to gradually resume its air emission reduction project, providing more time to meet strict emission standards. Specifically, Bill 11 extends the deadline for the Horne Smelter to reduce ambient air arsenic emission concentrations to 15 nanograms per cubic meter to 2029/30, a two-year delay, and requires that level to be maintained at least until 2033.
Spot Market:
(1) Shanghai: On June 15, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month SHFE copper 2606 contract were quoted with discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 120 yuan/mt, averaging a premium of 45 yuan/mt. The day was the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2606 contract, and in accordance with SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM always provides quotes against the front-month contract. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2606 contract mostly traded between 105,300 and 105,880 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper 2607 contract traded between 105,350 and 105,960 yuan/mt. The price spread between the contracts was between a Contango of 80 yuan/mt and a backwardation of 30 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the front-month 2606 contract was between a loss of 290 yuan/mt and 100 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the SHFE copper price is expected to rise and remain at a relatively high level, and with the contract rollover, market trading activity is expected to be tepid. This reflects that the current price levels are notably suppressing actual demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, with key attention needed on the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, with open interest in the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently at around 5,500 lots, the number of contracts for delivery is limited, so it is expected that the concentrated release of warrants will have a relatively limited further depressing effect on spot discounts. Supported by delivery logic, SHFE spot copper discounts did not decline significantly. However, if copper prices remain at current high levels, it will be difficult for the demand side to improve effectively, and spot premiums are likely to come under downward pressure.
(2) Guangdong: On June 15, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were: high-quality copper at 240 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,810 yuan/mt, up 1,095 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,720 yuan/mt, up 1,095 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, copper prices and inventories rose together, suppliers took the initiative to cut prices to sell, but actual transactions remained sluggish.
(3) Imported copper: On June 15, the average warrant price remained flat from the previous trading day at $59/mt (price range: $54-64/mt); the average B/L price remained flat from the previous trading day at $61/mt (price range: $55-67/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose $4/mt from the previous trading day to $33/mt (price range: $30-36/mt), referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late June and early July.
(4) Secondary copper: As of 11:30 on June 15, the futures closing price was 105,650 yuan/mt, up 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium was 45 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, secondary copper raw material prices rose 400 yuan/mt MoM; the sales sentiment index for secondary copper raw materials rose to 2.5, and the procurement sentiment index fell to 2.26; the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,069 yuan/mt, up 278 yuan/mt MoM; the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,490 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, with the front-month contract delivery, copper prices rose, and secondary copper scrap holders sold on the rally, but downstream players did not buy in, leading to mediocre intraday transactions.
Prices: On the macro front, the implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding progressed steadily, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on Friday, and lower energy prices alleviated market concerns over inflation; recovering risk appetite supported copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of imported and domestic cargoes remained at low levels, keeping market supply tight; demand side, high copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment, with mediocre market trading activity. On the inventory front, as of Monday, June 15, SMM copper inventories in major regions of China continued destocking WoW, with total inventories reaching 207,700 mt, up 60,000 mt compared to 147,700 mt in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to hold up well today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions, not use this as a substitute for independent judgment, and any decisions made by clients are not associated with SMM.]