Overnight copper prices rebounded, bears reduced positions; spot discounts shifted to premiums, and continuous inventory declines supported a relatively strong trend [SMM Copper Morning Brief]

Friday, June 12, 2026
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,424/mt, saw wild swings in early trading and dipped to a low of $13,398/mt, then the price center fluctuated upward, climbed to a high of $13,612.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at $13,575/mt, up 0.94%. Trading volume reached 21,100 lots, and open interest stood at 265,000 lots, down 2,125 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bear position trimming. The most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened overnight at 103,280 yuan/mt, dropped to a low of 103,010 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated upward and hit a high of 103,850 yuan/mt near the end of the session, finally settling at 103,540 yuan/mt, up 0.13%. Trading volume reached 30,100 lots, and open interest stood at 152,400 lots, down 8 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bear position trimming.
[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News:
(1) On Wednesday, June 10, Chile's Sierra Gorda mine and BHP's Spence copper mine agreed to explore cooperation opportunities aimed at reducing costs, improving efficiency, and strengthening the long-term competitiveness of copper mines. The two companies signed a memorandum of understanding to assess potential commercial and technical collaboration in Chile's Sierra Gorda region. Both mines in the region face declining ore grades, operational challenges, and falling production. The assessment areas include supply chain and operational processes, with the goal of generating economies of scale and enhancing sustainability. Dee Lingenfelder, President of BHP Pampa Norte (which includes the Spence and Cerro Colorado operations), said: "This approach allows us to identify opportunities that can help our company achieve long-term sustainable outcomes, while also strengthening our relationship with the region through collaboration within the area."
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: In the morning trading session on June 11, the SHFE copper 2606 contract opened higher and held steady. The opening price was 103,470 yuan/mt, after which prices fell first and then rose, dipping to 103,420 yuan/mt before rebounding slightly to touch a high of 103,720 yuan/mt; prices then fell rapidly, dropping to 102,710 yuan/mt. After stabilizing, they recovered modestly, and as of the close, prices had rebounded to 103,050 yuan/mt. The price spread between the front-month and next-month futures contracts was between Contango of 60 yuan/mt and Backwardation of 50 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2606 contract ranged from a loss of 150 yuan/mt to a loss of 50 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, the intraday copper price center shifted lower today, prompting stronger willingness from downstream users to restock at lower levels, with some processing enterprises reporting an increase in order volumes. The price spread structure between the front-month and next-month contracts has shifted from Contango to Backwardation. Suppliers saw improved delivery margins, leading to strong hold-back-from-selling sentiment. Low-priced, readily available supplies were scarce in the market. After discount-priced cargoes were quickly traded in early trading, quotes were continuously raised, with premiums for high-quality copper expanding to 60-100 yuan/mt. Supply side, SMM recorded Shanghai's social inventory at 155,700 mt on June 11, down 11,400 mt MoM from June 8, primarily due to concentrated maintenance at domestic smelters and reduced import arrivals, keeping spot circulation persistently tight. Overall, supported by delivery dynamics, the Backwardation structure, and marginal consumption improvement, spot copper prices in Shanghai against the SHFE copper 2606 contract are expected to maintain premiums and sustain a strong trend overall.
(2) Guangdong: On June 11, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 240 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,625 yuan/mt, down 585 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,550 yuan/mt, down 585 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventories fell for the eighth consecutive day, hitting a new low for the year, and spot premiums surged sharply, though actual transactions were average.
(3) Imported Copper: On June 11, the average warrant price remained flat from the previous trading day at $59/mt (price range: $54-64/mt); the average B/L price remained flat from the previous trading day at $61/mt (price range: $55-67/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) remained flat from the previous trading day at $29/mt (price range: $24-34/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late June and early July.
(4) Secondary Copper: On June 11, the futures closing price was 103,050 yuan/mt, down 960 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium was 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices fell 700 yuan/mt WoW, the copper scrap sales sentiment index declined to 2.49, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.43. The price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,587 yuan/mt, down 152 yuan/mt WoW. The price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 660 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, following the completion of reverse invoicing work in Ji’an, Jiangxi Province, some enterprises indicated that inspections for reverse invoicing compliance are also underway in the Fengcheng area. Currently, many secondary copper rod enterprises and scrap-derived copper anode producers in Jiangxi Province have suspended reverse invoicing operations. These inspections have led many scrap utilization enterprises in the Fengcheng area to halt production, and the supply of secondary copper rods in the market is expected to shrink.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump canceled strikes on Iran, stating that a deal is expected to be signed by this weekend; Iran denied any conclusion had been reached and entered its highest state of combat readiness, but Iranian media reported that three major differences have narrowed. Against this backdrop, the US suspended strike operations and indicated a deal could be signed this week, leading the US dollar index to close lower and copper prices to rebound. Fundamentals side, supply side, spot circulation remained persistently tight, with scarce cheap cargoes, maintaining an overall tight situation; demand side, stimulated by the pullback in copper prices, downstream restocking concentrated, bringing some overall demand recovery. Inventory side, as of Thursday, June 11, SMM copper inventories across mainstream Chinese regions decreased by 16,500 mt WoW to 217,800 mt, while total inventories were 73,000 mt higher than the 144,800 mt recorded in the same period last year. Taken together, copper prices are expected to fluctuate upward today.
[The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment, research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions with caution and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]