Multiple Factors Converge to Drive Tellurium Prices Gradually Higher [SMM Tellurium Report]

SMM, June 3 — According to customs data, China's cadmium telluride exports have risen for three consecutive months. After reaching 48 tonnes in February, export volumes climbed to 64 tonnes in March and further surged to 80 tonnes in April. Market participants noted that this increase in export volumes is well reflected in the persistently rising domestic tellurium prices.

Market participants indicated that the core driver behind the tellurium price rally lies on the supply side, where China remains in a position of high concentration and global supply is extremely centralized. On the demand side, growth has been relatively steady due to multi-sector resonance — particularly as summer approaches, the peak season for industries such as cooling chip manufacturing has arrived, spurring downstream purchasing demand for tellurium. Meanwhile, major overseas end-users such as First Solar continue to expand their CdTe thin-film module production capacity this year, which will provide strong long-term support for global tellurium raw material demand. Similarly, the construction of AI data centers is highly likely to ignite demand for thermoelectric cooling. As the power consumption of AI computing chips continues to climb, bismuth telluride thermoelectric cooling modules have become a critical heat dissipation solution, which is bound to drive structural growth in tellurium demand.

In the short term, there are no signs of any loosening in China's export controls. Although cadmium telluride export volumes are on an upward trend, the likelihood of continued sharp increases is limited. Meanwhile, downstream demand from CdTe photovoltaics and AI thermoelectrics is still accelerating. The tight supply-demand balance for tellurium is expected to persist, and prices are likely to remain elevated or even continue to rise. Risk factors to watch include whether the recovery rate of tellurium as a copper by-product improves, and progress on overseas alternative supply capacity — such as tellurium recycling technologies.