Multiple Factors Converge to Drive Tellurium Prices to Gradually Rise [SMM Tellurium Report]

SMM June 3 news: According to customs data, China's cadmium telluride (CdTe) exports showed a continuous upward trend over the past three months. Following exports of 48 mt in February, exports rose to 64 mt in March and further climbed to 80 mt in April. Market participants noted that the increase in exports was well reflected in the continuous rise of domestic tellurium prices. Market participants stated that the core reason for tellurium price increases remained on the supply side, where China maintained a highly monopolistic position with global supply being extremely concentrated. Demand side, multi-sector resonance drove steady demand growth, particularly as summer approached and the peak season for thermoelectric cooling modules arrived, boosting end-user purchasing demand for tellurium. This year, large overseas end-users such as First Solar continued to expand CdTe thin-film module capacity, providing strong long-term support for global tellurium raw material demand. Additionally, AI data center construction would also highly likely trigger thermoelectric cooling demand. As AI computing chip power consumption continued to climb, bismuth telluride thermoelectric cooling modules became a key thermal management solution, inevitably driving structural growth in tellurium demand. In the short term, China's export controls showed no signs of easing. Although CdTe exports were on an upward trend, the likelihood of further significant increases was relatively small. Meanwhile, downstream CdTe PV and AI thermoelectric demand continued to accelerate in release, and the tight balance in tellurium supply-demand dynamics would most likely persist, with prices expected to stay high or even continue to rise. Risk factors to watch include: whether the recovery rate of tellurium as a by-product of copper mine improves, and progress in ex-China alternative capacity (such as tellurium recycling technology).