Overseas Metallurgical Alumina Output Sees Slight Recovery, Geopolitical & Policy Risks Weigh on June Outlook

SMM, MAY 31 –
According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical alumina production in May 2026 fell by approximately 3.9% year-on-year, while rising by about 3.3% month-on-month. Ongoing disruptions in the Middle East kept output below last year's level, though a modest recovery was seen from April's low point.

In terms of production structure

 Vedanta's FY26 earnings report showed full-year alumina production reached 2.9 million tonnes, a record high, mainly due to a 48% surge in output from the Lanjigarh refinery and cost optimization. The aluminum business contributed nearly 50% of the group's EBITDA, with production costs falling to $1,752 per tonne, the lowest in five years.

According to South32's previous guidance, its Worsley alumina project continued to experience shipment disruptions due to tropical cyclones and third-party gas supply interruptions. The company maintained its full-year production guidance of 3.75 million tonnes, but expects second and third quarter output of 959,000 tonnes and 886,000 tonnes respectively, showing a phased decline.

Additionally, geopolitical risks continued to simmer. The European Commission is considering tightening restrictions on alumina exports to Russia, which could reshape European alumina trade flows if sanctions are upgraded. Indonesia's Marine and Fisheries Ministry sealed three jetty berths of Well Harvest Winning Alumina (WHW) over compliance issues. The company is actively communicating with authorities and expects the berths to reopen soon, with local production temporarily unaffected.

Looking ahead to June, uncertainties persist in overseas metallurgical alumina supply. Output is expected to edge down about 0.2% month-on-month. On the one hand, Indonesia's bauxite quota issues could disrupt local alumina refining; on the other hand, potential further EU restrictions on alumina exports to Russia would also affect output in related regions. The convergence of these factors is expected to lead to a slight fluctuation in overall overseas production.