[SMM Weekly Review] Diverging Downstream Demand Dragged on Market, Cobalt Salt Weakened, Raw Material Categories Remained Stable

Refined Cobalt:

Spot refined cobalt remained generally stable this week, with prices slightly under pressure. At the month-end stage, mainstream smelters largely completed their sales targets, keeping offers steady. Traders' spot-futures price spread ranged from parity to a premium of 8,000-10,000 yuan/mt. Downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, with no relaxation in raw material inventory controls. The metal price spread between refined cobalt and lower-priced cobalt salts has largely narrowed to parity, dampening industry willingness for reverse dissolution production. The market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term, and upward price movement still depends on a boost from the cobalt salt market.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:

Cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady this week. The supply side maintained a strong bullish sentiment, with offers firmly around $26/lb. Constrained by the sluggish cobalt salt market, downstream smelters remained cautious in procurement, making only just-in-time procurement, with some non-standard cargoes transacted at $25/lb. Currently, Q1 2026 quotas are still subject to slow approval progress due to cumbersome procedures; coupled with tight logistics capacity in the DRC, cobalt raw material transportation has lower priority, and the arrival of large shipments at ports continues to be delayed. Short-term demand support remains weak, and prices are likely to continue trading sideways; a subsequent strengthening of the market still depends on downstream demand recovery and cobalt salt price repair.

Cobalt Sulphate:

Spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to weaken this week. On the supply side, mainstream brand offers pulled back to 91,000-95,000 yuan/mt, with some smelters and traders cutting prices for shipments under capital turnover pressure, and low-priced cargoes in the market falling to 87,000-88,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, destocking remained the dominant theme, with a sluggish purchasing atmosphere and only sporadic just-in-time procurement. Downstream industry trends diverged: LCO enterprises saw production schedules fall short of expectations, compounded by slow order placement, resulting in strong wait-and-see sentiment; ternary precursor enterprises saw improving production schedules, with purchase willingness gradually rebounding. Short-term prices are likely to remain in the doldrums, and market recovery still awaits the release of concentrated restocking demand from downstream.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lv Yanlin 021-20707875

Xiao Wenhao 021-51666872

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Xu Yang 021-51666760

Yang Lianting 021-51595835

Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827