Spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated downward this week, with the price center shifting lower. The futures market fluctuated downward, with the most-traded contract 2609 price range declining from 179,300-187,900 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 172,100-180,900 yuan/mt, hitting a mid-week low of 172,100 yuan/mt. Open interest first increased then decreased, and market sentiment remained cautious.
Market transactions exhibited characteristics of "purchasing as needed and relatively sluggish activity," with downstream procurement enthusiasm continuing to pull back. Upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, with spot order quotes mostly staying above 180,000 yuan/mt. Some unhedged enterprises showed increasingly strong reluctance to sell, while hedged enterprises increased direct sales to downstream buyers. Downstream material plants basically maintained purchasing as needed as prices continued to fluctuate downward, with weak willingness for large-scale restocking. On one hand, most enterprises had actively stockpiled when prices were at lows previously; on the other hand, as month-end approached, considering that customer-supplied and long-term contract volumes would be replenished at the beginning of next month, some material plants slowed down their procurement pace. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions remained relatively stable.
Lithium carbonate production decreased this week, mainly affected by spodumene production line maintenance and unstable raw material supply. In terms of inventory changes, upstream lithium chemical plants saw a slight edge up in hedging-related registered warrants. Combined with the decline in lithium chemical plant production this week, overall upstream inventory showed a destocking trend. Downstream material plants saw slight inventory accumulation due to purchasing as needed. In the trader segment, as downstream continued purchasing as needed and upstream held back from selling while holding prices firm, overall inventory also showed a destocking trend.
Looking ahead, spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term. Supply side, the actual production resumption progress of Jiangxi mines, and the shipment and port arrival status of Zimbabwean lithium concentrates remain key variables going forward. Demand side, close attention should be paid to June cathode material and battery cell production schedule data. The short-term supply-demand timing mismatch has not yet been resolved, still providing some support for prices.
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