Chinese firms dominate Guinea alumina expansion, potentially shifting the country from bauxite exporter into alumina hub

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] The ADC12 market showed a stronger recovery today, with most enterprises raising quotes by 100-200 yuan/mt. As invoice sources remained tight, market concerns over a potential contraction in alloy ingot supply intensified, and suppliers showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm. The short-term price increase was mainly driven by cost and supply-side factors.

[Macro and Fundamentals Send Mixed Signals; Domestic Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] On the macro front, US consumer confidence edged down, confirming growing anxiety among American consumers over high living costs. Although the labour market remained generally stable with few signs of large-scale layoffs, the recent surge in fuel prices posed particular challenges for low-income households, and the bearish sentiment from external markets indirectly weighed on aluminum prices. On the fundamentals side, supply shortfalls and low inventory outside China continued to provide floor support, but elevated domestic inventory levels remained the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Additionally, weak trading activity in the spot market further limited upside room for aluminum prices. In the near term, aluminum prices are expected to continue moving sideways in a pattern where LME outperforms SHFE.