[SMM Analysis] Weak Downstream Consumption Increases Pressure on Ex-China Steel Trading

Price spread model, the price inversion of Chinese steel relative to overseas markets (India, Japan, Turkey, Black Sea) deepened further in late May. In particular, Chinese resources were cheaper compared to Indonesia, and the price spread was "narrowing at an accelerating pace." For pure ex-China inter-regional price spreads, India's decline was more pronounced compared to other regions, as weak domestic demand drove aggressive low-price bidding.

Segment-wise, steel procurement sentiment in Southeast Asia became more cautious last week, with coil prices weakening. In Vietnam, coated steel and steel pipe prices began to slow down after a prolonged rally, and buyers became increasingly cautious about restocking ahead of the rainy season. Meanwhile, due to weak demand and growing pressure from low-priced imports, Formosa Ha Tinh Steel, a subsidiary of Taiwan's China Steel Corporation, also cut its HRC quotations by $5-10/mt to $598-603/mt CIF Vietnam. Although some Vietnamese downstream steel mills continued to raise or maintain prices due to earlier increases in raw material costs and tight spot supply, some producers had begun to limit orders or delay quotations while waiting for a clearer market direction. Notably, Indonesian HRC quotations remained competitive with relatively active exports, with FOB prices at around $565/mt. According to SMM survey, recent transaction prices to Vietnam were around $585/mt CFR.

Turkey market: As the Middle East was set to enter a long holiday mid-week, most market participants had already exited early. According to SMM survey, no clear large-volume transactions were seen in the Turkish steel scrap market last week. Meanwhile, as domestic rebar demand remained sluggish, steel mills pushed their target purchase prices for European HMS 1&2 (80:20) scrap below $400/mt CFR to pass on the pressure. The recent euro depreciation and slight correction in ocean freight rates opened up some discount room for European sellers to a certain extent, but judging from actual market transactions, sellers still found it difficult to accept such low prices. At the same time, US exporters continued to hold prices firm at $420/mt CFR. In addition, mainstream quotations for Turkish domestic HRC remained at $660-675/mt EXW. Due to exchange rate fluctuations and high production costs, steel mills were striving to hold prices firm, but downstream buyers remained cautious in purchasing, with expected psychological prices 15-20 $/mt lower.

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