Fed Minutes Signal Shift to Tightening Policy Amid Inflation Concerns, Surprising Markets

The inflation indicator closely watched by the US Fed was officially released. According to data released by the US Commerce Department, the US PCE price index for May rose 4.1% YoY, the highest since April 2023; meanwhile, core PCE also rose 3.4% YoY, in line with market expectations and the highest since October 2023. In addition, the final annualized growth rate of US real GDP for Q1 was revised up to 2.1%, higher than the previous revision of 1.6%. Meanwhile, durable goods orders in May fell 4.5% MoM, the largest decline in nearly a year.

The US Central Command announced that US forces conducted strikes on Iran, responding to an earlier attack on a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Specifically, Iran used one-way attack drones to target the cargo ship "Ever Lovely," after which US fighter jets struck Iranian missile and drone storage facilities and coastal radar stations. US President Donald Trump stated that Iran's drone attack in the Strait of Hormuz violated the ceasefire agreement. Separately, Hossein Mokhbi, spokesperson for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, denied claims that Iran and the US have established a communication hotline concerning the Strait of Hormuz, calling the information purely fictitious.