Fed Minutes Signal Shift to Tightening Policy Amid Inflation Concerns, Surprising Markets

Published: May 23, 2026 15:27

Save

The US Fed meeting minutes revealed that many policymakers were inclined to abandon the easing bias, with most participants indicating that if inflation remained persistently above the 2% level, it would be necessary to tighten policy. Only a few officials supported future interest rate cuts, and the hawkish tone of the language far exceeded market expectations. Additionally, according to CME data, the market is now pricing in a 60% probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points before year-end, while expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 have virtually disappeared.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

20 mins ago

Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Jun 18)

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 18 Jun , 2026

20 mins ago

31 mins ago

Domestic Alumina Exports up 36.4% YoY in May 2026, Cumulative YTD Up 14.7%

According to China Customs, China exported 280,000 mt of alumina in May 2026, up 36.4% YoY. From January to May 2026, China's cumulative alumina exports reached 1.34 million mt, up 14.7% YoY.

31 mins ago

36 mins ago

Domestic Bauxite Imports Up 16.6% MoM in May 2026, Up 31.9% YoY

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in May 2026, China imported 23.03 million mt of aluminum ores and concentrates, up 16.6% MoM and up 31.9% YoY; cumulative imports in January-May reached 100.69 million mt, up 18.5% YoY.

36 mins ago