[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] 20260521

Today, the most-traded HRC contract rose first then fell, closing at 3,394 at the end of the session, down 0.59% intraday. HRC spot prices mostly declined 10-20 yuan/mt today, with some markets remaining stable. In terms of supply, weekly hot-rolled production was 3.1739 million mt, up 19,700 mt WoW, with supply pressure relatively neutral. Demand side, morning transactions were moderate, while afternoon futures decline weakened market transactions. Cost side, after macro front disturbances eased, short-term cost support was limited. Looking ahead, overall HRC inventory will continue to decline, with total inventory down 161,300 mt WoW this week. The supply-demand imbalance showed divergence, with inventory in east China and northern regions continuing to decline while ...

Today iron ore futures weakened, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 789.5 yuan/mt, down 1.07% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 4-8 yuan from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering; steel mill purchases were mostly driven by rigid demand; overall spot market transactions were limited.

[SMM Analysis] Demand Resilience Persists at Tail End of Peak Season, Stainless Steel Social Inventory Continues Destocking On May 21, SMM reported that stainless steel social inventory continued its mild destocking trend this week. Total inventory across the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan pulled back slightly, dropping from 947,100 mt on May 14, 2026 to 939,200 mt on May 21, down 0.83% WoW, sustaining a mild destocking pattern. Stainless steel market prices were overall in the doldrums this week. Against the backdrop of declining prices, traders generally felt weak market conditions, and wait-and-see sentiment intensified. However, end-use demand demonstrated strong resilience. The market is still at the tail end of the traditional peak consumption season, and downstream end-user just-in-time procurement transactions remained generally stable, without concentrated purchasing halts due to weakening futures or subdued market sentiment, continuously supporting the digestion of market supplies. Meanwhile, steel mill agents proactively cut prices and actively pushed shipments, accelerating the depletion of circulating market supplies. Multiple factors jointly drove stainless steel social inventory to pull back slightly further this week. Overall, sustained release of end-user just-in-time procurement combined with proactive shipments from steel mills jointly dominated the mild destocking trend in inventory this week. Currently, stainless steel mills still maintain reasonable profit margins with strong production willingness, and overall production is expected to stay high, with sustained pressure on the market supply side. As the traditional peak consumption season gradually draws to a close, downstream consumption is about to enter the off-season, and subsequent demand pullback will exert notable pressure on continued inventory destocking. In the short term, inventory is expected to continue its mild destocking trend, but the degree of destocking will most likely slow down gradually. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream just-in-time procurement, steel mill production schedules and delivery pace, peak season...