Global Aluminum Faces Deficit, Copper Sees Oversupply in March 2026: WBMS Report

[SMM Aluminum Express News] The future of Rio Tinto’s Bell Bay aluminum smelter in Tasmania remains uncertain as negotiations over a new 10-year electricity agreement with Hydro Tasmania face an estimated A$60 million annual pricing gap. Tasmania Energy Minister Nick Duigan said the difference is between the power price Rio Tinto says it needs to keep the smelter viable and the lowest price Hydro Tasmania can commercially offer. The current power agreement expires on 31 December 2026, putting more than 550 direct jobs at risk if a new arrangement cannot be reached. The Tasmanian government is calling for federal support to help bridge the gap, while uncertainty has emerged over Bell Bay’s access to Australia’s A$2 billion Green Aluminium Production Credit scheme. The federal government had previously indicated Bell Bay would be eligible, but recent comments suggested the credits are primarily intended for smelters transitioning from fossil-fuel power to renewables, whereas Bell Bay already operates on hydroelectricity. Hydro Tasmania said it has pushed its offer as low as commercially sustainable and indicated government support may be required to close the remaining gap.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] A proposed bauxite and marl mining project at the Mevasa Block in Gujarat’s Devbhumi Dwarka district has been recommended for environmental clearance by India’s Environment Ministry’s Expert Appraisal Committee (EAC). The project covers just over 5 hectares and is located around 1.6 km from India’s first marine wildlife sanctuary and 6 km from the Marine National Park along the Gulf of Kachchh. The EAC issued its recommendation at its 29 July 2026 meeting, subject to environmental and wildlife protection conditions.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Ma’aden’s aluminum business delivered its best quarterly financial performance since inception in Q2 2026, with revenue rising 49% year on year to US$1.01 billion and EBITDA more than doubling to US$411 million, representing a 41% margin. The improvement was mainly driven by higher pricing, with average realized aluminum prices increasing 51% to US$3,915/tonne, despite production edging lower to 242,000 tonnes. Ma’aden expects aluminum market fundamentals to remain supportive, citing an estimated global market deficit of around 1.7 million tonnes for the remainder of 2026. The company noted that aluminum prices began moderating toward the end of Q2 but expects the supply deficit to continue supporting near-term pricing, while maintaining a favorable medium- to long-term outlook.