Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stable, Module Prices Relatively Weak [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM May 11 update:

Silicon Metal

Price

Spot silicon metal trended stronger last week, with SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt and #441 silicon at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt. In the futures market, the SI2609 contract rose above 9,000 yuan/mt. This round of price rise has to some extent eased pressure on supply-side producers. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts has intensified, and subsequent focus should be on shifts in capital logic, changes in macro sentiment, and the pace of production starts on the industrial side.

Production

Supply side, SMM data showed silicon metal production in April was 320,000 mt, down 3% MoM and up 6% YoY. Silicon metal production in May is expected to increase MoM, though specific operating rates remain uncertain, and attention should be paid to changes in operating rates of top-tier players and the Sichuan region.

Inventory

Social inventory: SMM statistics showed that as of May 7, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totalled 551,000 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36.3 yuan/kg. Weekend market prices were temporarily stable. Frequent industry meetings yielded mixed bearish and bullish results, wait-and-see sentiment increased, and prices remained temporarily stable.

Production

In May, domestic bases saw both production increases and maintenance, with total production edging up by around 3 kt from April.

Inventory

Inventory edged up slightly. Very few new orders were signed in the market, and last week inventory pressure was mainly digested through shipments of previously signed orders.

Module

Price

Domestic module prices were in the doldrums last week. Transaction prices softened in some areas, but the mainstream transaction range has not seen major adjustments. There remains a certain price spread between top-tier and second/third-tier enterprises, with the market showing a tug-of-war between holding prices firm and making concessions to boost shipments. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.7445 Yuan/W, 0.752 Yuan/W, and 0.755 Yuan/W respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.724 Yuan/W and 0.744 Yuan/W respectively.

Production

In May, production schedules diverged among enterprises. Overall planned production is expected to increase from April, but the increase is limited.

Inventory

Recently, module inventory has remained stable. Upstream and downstream enterprises are engaged in price negotiations over modules, and purchase volumes are limited.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, domestic inner-layer sand is priced at 40,000-45,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 20,000-25,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 16,000-18,000 yuan/mt. Imported high-purity quartz sand is priced at 55,000-55,000 yuan/mt. 33-inch quartz crucibles are priced at 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles at 6,700-6,900 yuan/piece. Spot order prices for imported sand have pulled back notably.

Production

In May, quartz sand enterprise production schedules edged up in line with wafer production schedules, but the total MoM increase was relatively low. Most enterprises are currently maintaining a sales-based production strategy.

Inventory

After centralised procurement, exports were hindered. In May, imported quartz sand inventory levels continued to increase, and crucible enterprises purchased reasonably based on wafer planned production.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coating PV glass was quoted at 15.5-17 yuan/m², with prices stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coating PV glass was quoted at 16.5-18 yuan/m², with prices stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coating PV glass was quoted at 8.8-10 yuan/m². Recently, glass enterprises have maintained stable quotes, but shipments have been poor. In May, some glass enterprises plan to make concessions to take orders.

2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coating PV glass was quoted at 9.8-11 yuan/m², with prices stable.

Production

Last week, approximately 1,000 mt/day of furnace capacity was reduced in China. As the market remains sluggish, the pace of production cuts is expected to accelerate in May.

Inventory

Glass inventory continued to rise, but module enterprises are expected to stockpile at low prices in May.