US Dollar and Crude Oil Fell on Weekly Basis,US Dollar and Crude Oil Fell on Weekly Basis, Metals Broadly Declined, LME Copper Rose Over 1%, LME Tin and SHFE Zinc Led Losses, SHFE Silver Surged on Weekly Basis [Overnight Market]

SMM News on May 9:

Metals market:

Domestic base metals mostly fell overnight. SHFE copper rose 0.53%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.16%, SHFE lead fell 0.15%, SHFE zinc fell 1.19%, SHFE tin fell 1.13%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.37%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract fell 0.24%.

Ferrous metals mostly fell overnight, with iron ore flat at 816.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel down 1.05%, rebar slightly up, and HRC up 0.14%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.39% and coke fell 0.43%.

For the overseas metals market overnight, LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 1.59%. LME aluminum rose 0.34%, LME lead was flat at $1,977.5/mt, LME zinc fell 0.17%, LME tin fell 1.26%, and LME nickel fell 0.89%.

Precious metals overnight: COMEX gold rose 0.27%, with COMEX gold up on the week, gaining 1.71%; COMEX silver rose 0.82%, with COMEX silver up 5.76% for the week. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.21%, but rose 3.24% on the week; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.09%, with SHFE silver up 11.4% on the week.

As of 8:39 on May 9, overnight closing prices:

Macro front

China:

[Four departments: Explore direct power supply to computing facilities from energy sources such as nuclear power and hydrogen, and continuously increase the share of green electricity in computing facilities] The "Plan" proposes to enhance the diversified power supply capacity for computing facilities. Based on actual conditions such as the scale of computing facilities connected to the system, power grid voltage levels, new energy penetration rate of the power grid, power quality requirements, and computing facility business types, sound standards for the planning and construction of energy supply for computing facilities will be established. The plan explores direct power supply to computing facilities from energy sources such as nuclear power and hydrogen. It encourages computing facilities to deploy grid-forming ESS to enhance power supply stability and active support capabilities for the power system.

[Three departments issue "Implementation Opinions on the Standardized Application and Innovative Development of Intelligent Agents"] The Cyberspace Administration of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Standardized Application and Innovative Development of Intelligent Agents." The "Implementation Opinions" clarifies that the development of intelligent agents must adhere to the basic principles of being safe and controllable, standardized and orderly, innovation-driven, and application-led, and proposes measures in four areas: First, consolidate the foundation for development, improve the technological base, and establish standard protocols. Second, hold the security bottom line, clarify product guidelines, prevent security risks, improve the governance system, and strengthen industry self-discipline. Third, strengthening application-driven developmentThird, strengthening application-driven development, proposing 19 typical application scenarios around scientific research, industrial development, consumption stimulation, people's well-being, and social governance. Fourth, building an innovation ecosystem, promoting industrial cooperation, and strengthening application promotion.

[China's Warehousing Index Remained in Expansion Territory in April, with the Warehousing Industry Sustaining a Stable and Positive Trend]The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Warehousing Index for April today (the 9th). The index continued to stay in expansion territory, with the warehousing industry sustaining a stable and positive trend. The China Warehousing Index stood at 51% in April, remaining in expansion territory for two consecutive months. In terms of sub-indices, the new orders index, facility utilization rate index, and end-of-period inventory index remained in expansion territory, while the average inventory turnover index maintained a relatively high level, indicating steady growth in warehousing demand, sound cargo turnover efficiency, and smooth supply chain connectivity. By product category, the peak production and construction season drove a rebound in warehousing demand for bulk commodities such as chemicals, coal, and machinery equipment, while Labour Day holiday stockpiling boosted notable growth in warehousing demand for consumer goods such as food, home appliances, and agricultural by-products. In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectations index stood at 55.1% in April, remaining at a relatively high level, reflecting enterprises' continued optimism. Overall, the warehousing industry operated steadily in April, with market vitality continuing to be released, achieving a good start to Q2. (CCTV)

[Shanghai Shipping Exchange: Geopolitical Situation Trending Toward Stability, Freight Rates Rising on Most Routes]The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) stated in its weekly report that the military ceasefire in the Middle East continued to hold, with the geopolitical situation remaining relatively stable, though the future outlook still faced significant uncertainty. This week, China's export container shipping market remained stable, with freight rates on most routes edging up, driving the composite index higher. On May 8, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index stood at 1954.21 points, up 2.2% from the previous period.

US Dollar:

The US dollar index fell 0.43% overnight, closing at 97.86. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index declined for two consecutive weeks, down 0.36% for the week. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, marking the first consecutive growth in nearly a year and the largest two-month gain since 2024, far exceeding the Bloomberg survey median economist forecast of 65,000. March data was also revised up to 185,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, in line with expectations. (Wallstreetcn)

US Fed "mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: An increasing number of seller-side institutions and Fed watchers are removing or delaying interest rate cut expectations from their outlooks, including several forecasters who made adjustments following the release of the April non-farm payrolls data. Currently, half of market participants believe there will be no interest rate cut this year (given the inertia of such forecasts, this camp is likely to continue growing). Additionally, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that all rate options are currently on the table, not just rate cuts. At the end of April, the US Fed kept rates unchanged, with three officials opposing language in the statement implying the next move could be a rate cut, arguing that the possibility of a rate hike should be preserved. Goolsbee's remarks reflect a shift among US Fed policymakers—no longer considering near-term rate cuts, primarily because the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war has pushed up inflation. He reiterated that both rate cuts and rate hikes are on the table, expressed anxiety about inflation, and noted that price pressures exist beyond the energy shock. (Jin10 Data)

As consumers worry about the impact of inflation on personal finances and buying conditions,US consumer confidence fell to a new all-time low in recent weeks.University of Michigan data showed the preliminary May consumer sentiment index fell from 49.8 in April to 48.2. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, a slight pullback MoM; long-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years stood at 3.4%. As Americans' anxiety over overall living costs intensified, compounded by a sharp rise in gasoline prices, consumer confidence remained depressed. American Automobile Association (AAA) data showed the average US gasoline price this week surpassed $4.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2022, having risen more than 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war. Survey director Joanne Hsu stated: "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices, and about 30% mentioned tariff issues. Overall, consumers still feel the impact of cost pressure, with the primary driver being surging prices at the pump." The preliminary May current conditions index fell to 47.8, a record low; the expectations index rebounded for the first time since January. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation dropped to the lowest level since 2009, and the buying conditions indicator also fell to a five-month low. (Jin10 Data)

On the macro front:

Data to be released next week include China April CPI YoY, China April PPI YoY, US April existing home sales annualized, Germany April CPI MoM final, Germany May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending April 25, US April unadjusted CPI YoY, US April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US April unadjusted core CPI YoY, Japan March trade balance, France Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France April CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone March industrial output MoM, US April PPI YoY, US April PPI MoM, UK Q1 GDP YoY preliminary, UK March three-month GDP MoM, UK March manufacturing output MoM, Canada March wholesale sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US April retail sales MoM, US April import price index MoM, US May NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US April industrial output MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD).

In addition, events to watch next week include: US Treasury Secretary Bessent visiting Japan to meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the BOJ Governor, and the Finance Minister; the BOJ releasing the Summary of Opinions from its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participating in a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins speaking at the Boston Economic Club; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by a local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participating in a dialogue on the energy sector; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivering opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; US Fed Governor Barr delivering a speech; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a discussion; and the National Energy Administration releasing total electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month.

Crude oil:

Overnight, the two benchmark oil futures moved sideways, with WTI down 0.14% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 1.2% for the week, while Brent futures fell 7.32% for the week. Middle East conflicts flared up again, and market concerns over the fragility of ceasefire agreements persisted.

According to CMG reporters on May 8, ship-tracking data showed that as of the morning of May 8 local time, no large vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. This marked the second consecutive day since May 7 with no large commercial ships passing through the strait. (CCTV)

US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that US energy enterprises increased oil and natural gas rig counts for the third consecutive week, marking the first three-week streak of increases since early February. Data showed that for the week ending May 8, the total US oil and natural gas rig count—a leading indicator of future production—increased by 1 to 548, the highest since early April. (Webstock Inc.)

According to foreign media reports, sources said that since shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, enterprises such as Saudi Aramco's trading arm (Aramco Trading) and UAE national oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) had continued to transport crude oil cargoes through the strait. Although current shipment volumes represented only a fraction of what flowed before Iran closed this oil route nearly 10 weeks ago, the actions of both companies served as a reminder to the market that some supply could still reach global markets. According to sources, Adnoc was among the first companies to attempt shipping crude oil, fuel, and natural gas cargoes out through the strait. The company supplied clients with Upper Zakum crude, a grade typically loaded at Zirku Island, but in this case delivered in Fujairah waters outside the Persian Gulf. According to Vortexa data, at the end of April, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) loaded with Abu Dhabi crude turned off its transponder and sailed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data showed that as of Thursday, another VLCC, Fujairah Energy, remained anchored in waters near Abu Dhabi, carrying a half-load of crude obtained via ship-to-ship transfer from Zirku Island. A charter agreement showed that the vessel had been temporarily chartered by Adnoc and plans to load crude between May 15 and 17 for delivery to Asia. (Jin10 Data)

Citi stated that the current base case scenario expects Brent crude to average $110 in Q2 2026, then decline to $95 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. Fitch expects Brent crude to remain at $100–110 per barrel during the Strait of Hormuz blockade from May to July, before pulling back to $70 per barrel by September.

Additionally, JPMorgan analysts said US gasoline prices "could very well" rise to $5 per gallon, as refineries are prioritizing jet fuel production at the expense of other products. The analyst team noted in a Friday report that in Asia, the region currently hardest hit by the energy crisis, the price shock triggered by the Iran war is transmitting significantly faster through refined product markets such as jet fuel and diesel than through the crude oil market. If refinery operations continue to be constrained by limited crude supply, fuel prices could become "the primary transmission channel for demand destruction." "In this scenario, crude prices could still stabilize around $100 per barrel even as refined product crack spreads widen significantly. At that point, the next phase of the shock would look less like a traditional crude oil price spike and more like a refining and end-user fuel supply crisis." The product most visibly impacted currently is jet fuel, which is prompting refineries to maximize jet fuel output wherever possible, typically at the cost of reduced diesel production. The knock-on effects are also spreading to gasoline production. Analysts said: "This perhaps explains why US gasoline prices have already risen to $4.55 per gallon, and why the risk of gasoline reaching $5 can no longer be ignored." (Jin10 Data)