SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.10
Futures:During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,643 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,665 yuan/mt and a low of 2,622 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,641 yuan/mt, down 31 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 2,876 lots to 181,200 lots, as bulls and bears continued to wrestle in the market. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,679.40), MA10 (2,762.00), and MA30 (2,684.90), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward movement. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (-19.09) crossed above DIF (-57.41), with the "death cross continuing" and the histogram at -76.03. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term, and continued attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes.
Industry Updates:
1) Ex-China alumina transactions: On April 9, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at a transaction price of $306/mt FOB Western Australia, for May shipment.
Ore:As of April 9, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.41/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $68.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $62.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was at $76.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $78/mt, flat from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply was relatively sufficient, and ore prices were basically stable. For imported ore, against the backdrop of ocean freight rate fluctuations, some mines controlled shipments, providing certain support for ore prices. However, alumina refinery inventories remained at high levels (approximately 92 days), and alumina refineries showed weak purchase willingness, with buyers and sellers continuing to negotiate on pricing. Ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends going forward.
Spot Prices:As of April 9, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,771.37 yuan/mt, down 9.86 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,752.63 yuan/mt, down 13.9 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,802.74 yuan/mt, down 15.3 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,791.73 yuan/mt, down 11.89 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,809.29 yuan/mt, down 4.96 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,762.94 yuan/mt, down 5.17 yuan/mt MoM.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on April 9, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 95.37 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM.
Warrant Daily Report:On April 9, total registered alumina warrants increased by 12,355 mt from the previous trading day to 464,500 mt. By region: Shandong increased by 6,035 mt to 58,035 mt; Henan remained flat at 17,710 mt; Guangxi increased by 301 mt to 29,753 mt; Gansu remained flat at 49,847 mt; Xinjiang increased by 6,019 mt to 309,200 mt.
Markets Outside China:As of April 9, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $320/mt, the ocean freight rate was $31.35/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.85. This translated to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,800.97 yuan/mt, which was 29.6 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window was closed.
Summary:
Supply side, as of Thursday this week, the weekly industry operating rate edged up by 0.26 percentage points, mainly because newly commissioned projects in Guangxi were in a slow production ramp-up phase, driving a marginal weekly production increase of 6,000 mt, with overall industry supply continuing to increase. Inventory side, the spot market remained generally tight, with some enterprises still drawing down their own inventories, resulting in destocking of 9,000 mt at plants. Meanwhile, alumina refinery inventories edged up by 6,000 mt, mainly due to inventory buildup from new products as Guangxi ramped up production. Warrant side, the price spread between futures and spot cargo previously offered profit margins, prompting previously registered warrants to be shipped to delivery warehouses, which in turn pushed up alumina futures inventory. Port inventory saw destocking of 32,000 mt this week, mainly because alumina that had previously arrived at ports was transshipped to the Middle East, leading to a decline in port inventory. Overall, the national alumina market saw a slight inventory buildup, mainly driven by increased warrant registrations, which pushed overall inventory levels slightly higher. Looking ahead to next week, current warrant inventory is gradually approaching full capacity, and the inventory buildup trend is expected to continue to be driven by the sustained release of newly commissioned alumina refinery capacity. Alumina inventory is expected to continue showing a slight inventory buildup trend next week.
[Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
