SMM Alumina Morning Comment 3.27
Futures:During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,940 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,947 yuan/mt and a low of 2,904 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,917 yuan/mt, down 22 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 1,414 lots to 224,400 lots, as bulls and bears continued to wrestle in the market. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,983.60) and MA10 (3,007.20), indicating certain resistance at the top for upward movement, but above MA30 (2,892.70), providing certain support at the bottom. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (50.64) crossed above DIF (43.42), forming a bearish crossover at a low level, with the histogram at -14.44. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term. Continued attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes.
Industry Updates:
1) Ex-China alumina transaction: On March 25, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at a transaction price of $355/mt FOB Jamaica, for June shipment.
2) Ex-China alumina transaction: On March 25, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at a transaction price of $351/mt FOB Jamaica, for May shipment.
Ore:As of March 26, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.32/mt, up $1.13/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $68/mt, up $1/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, up $2/mt from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $62.5/mt, up $2.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was at $75.5/mt, up $1/mt from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $76.5/mt, up $3.5/mt from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply remained relatively sufficient, with ore prices under continued negotiation. On the import ore side, affected by rising ocean freight rates and tight fuel supply in Guinea, major mines controlled shipments, and bauxite shipments declined significantly. Cost support bolstered expectations for higher ore prices. However, alumina refinery inventories in China remained at high levels (approximately 93 days), suppressing procurement demand, and price negotiations between buyers and sellers continued. Ore prices are expected to rise in a stepwise manner in the short term. Going forward, attention should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends.
Spot Price:As of March 26, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,773.34 yuan/mt, up 4.69 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,754.43 yuan/mt, up 3.74 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,806.48 yuan/mt, up 9.11 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,794.15 yuan/mt, up 9.35 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,800.98 yuan/mt, up 7.2 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,768.81 yuan/mt, up 0.42 yuan/mt MoM.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on March 26, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 165.66 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM.
Warrant Daily Report:On March 26, total registered alumina warrants increased by 2,399 mt from the previous trading day to 412,600 mt. In Shandong, registered alumina warrants remained flat at 36,755 mt. In Henan, registered alumina warrants remained flat at 6,011 mt. In Guangxi, registered alumina warrants increased by 2,399 mt to 29,800 mt. In Gansu, registered alumina warrants remained flat at 49,500 mt. In Xinjiang, registered alumina warrants remained flat at 290,500 mt.
Markets Outside China:As of March 26, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $312/mt, the ocean freight rate was $31.05/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.92. This translated to a selling price at mainstream Chinese ports of approximately 2,762.32 yuan/mt, which was 11.02 yuan/mt below the alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window was open.
Summary:
This Thursday, the China alumina market showed an inventory buildup trend, with overall inventory increasing by 62,000 mt, and the buildup pace widened WoW. Supply side, although the industry operating rate declined by 0.21 percentage points this week, weekly production still rose, up 30,000 mt MoM to 1.652 million mt, as an alumina refinery in Guangxi began formal production. Inventory side, performance diverged across segments. Aluminum smelter inventory increased by 11,000 mt, mainly due to concentrated arrivals of alumina at an aluminum smelter in a northern region, pushing up overall inventory levels. Alumina refinery finished product inventories also grew, up 17,000 mt MoM to 1.233 million mt, mainly because a new alumina refinery in Guangxi started commissioning. Port inventory increased by 50,000 mt this week to 235,000 mt, mainly driven by large volumes of imported alumina arriving at ports successively, leading to continued port inventory buildup. SHFE futures warrants increased by 7,000 mt to 412,000 mt. Previously, large volumes were shipped to delivery warehouses in Xinjiang, but local warehouse capacity was gradually tightening, and the pace of shipping to delivery warehouses slowed down. Overall warrants maintained a slow inventory buildup. In addition, in-transit and platform stockpile inventory decreased by 24,000 mt to 1.123 million mt. Overall, national alumina inventory continued the previous inventory buildup trend this week. Going forward, as new alumina projects in Guangxi successively enter formal commissioning, market supply pressure is expected to further intensify, exerting a sustained impact on inventory changes.
[Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
