SMM Alumina Morning Comment 3.23
Futures:Last Friday during the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 3,055 yuan/mt, reached a high of 3,103 yuan/mt, hit a low of 3,027 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,088 yuan/mt, up 83 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 8,658 lots to 254,500 lots. Bullish sentiment was strong in the current market, mainly due to frequent supply disruptions of raw material ore and tight alumina supply within the region. From a technical perspective, the closing price was above MA5 (3,055.40), MA10 (2,977.10), and MA30 (2,871.53), providing certain bottom support. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DIF (68.27) crossed above DEA (46.79), with the low-level golden cross continuing and the histogram at 42.95, indicating that upward momentum remained. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term, and continued attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts and commissioning plans for new capacity.
Industry Updates:
1) According to foreign media, Rio Tinto temporarily shut down two bauxite mines, Amrun and Andoom, in northern Queensland, Australia, due to a tropical cyclone, involving capacity of 30 million mt.
Ore:As of March 20, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $66.28/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $66.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $60.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $55.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average price was at $47.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $59.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was at $75.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $76.5/mt, up $3.5/mt from last Friday. Domestic ore side, prices remained under negotiation, with certain differences in ore supply landscapes across regions. Imported ore side, affected by rising ocean freight rates and tight fuel supply in Guinea, major mines controlled shipments, and bauxite shipments declined significantly, with cost support underpinning bullish expectations for ore prices. However, alumina refinery inventories in China remained at high levels (approximately 96 days), suppressing procurement demand, and price negotiations between buyers and sellers continued. Short-term ore prices are expected to rise in a stepwise manner, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends going forward.
Spot Price:As of March 20, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,746.90 yuan/mt, up 10.23 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,713.27 yuan/mt, up 12.35 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,775.76 yuan/mt, up 6 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,760.13 yuan/mt, up 16.15 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,785.45 yuan/mt, up 15.89 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,761.32 yuan/mt, up 5.81 yuan/mt MoM.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on March 20, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 286.1 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM.
Warrant Daily Report:On March 20, total registered alumina warrants increased by 8,686 mt from the previous trading day to 399,100 mt. In Shandong, total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 36,152 mt. In Henan, total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 6,011 mt. In Guangxi, total registered alumina warrants increased by 3,009 mt from the previous trading day to 28,000 mt. In Gansu, total registered alumina warrants increased by 9,583 mt from the previous trading day to 49,500 mt. In Xinjiang, total registered alumina warrants decreased by 897 mt from the previous trading day to 280,600 mt.
Markets Outside China:As of March 20, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $302/mt, the ocean freight rate was $34.55/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.91. This price was equivalent to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,708.76 yuan/mt, which was 38.14 yuan/mt below the alumina index price.
Summary:
As of last Thursday, the alumina market saw an inventory buildup of 18,000 mt WoW, mainly due to a notable increase in warrant volumes. Supply side, the industry operating rate declined by 0.6 percentage points this week, and operating capacity continued to decrease, with weekly alumina production down by 9,000 mt this week. Inventory changes: Aluminum smelters continued to draw down their own raw material inventories, which decreased by 6,000 mt this week. Overall raw material procurement sentiment was lukewarm, with some enterprises actively destocking after Chinese New Year. Finished product inventories at alumina refineries pulled back slightly, mainly due to a slight decline in alumina operating capacity, down by 8,000 mt. Port inventory decreased slightly by 3,000 mt this week, but reportedly large volumes of imported alumina are expected to arrive at ports subsequently, and inventory may shift back to buildup. Futures-related inventory rose significantly, as futures traded at a substantial premium to spot, and some alumina was registered as warrants. SHFE warrant inventory saw an inventory buildup of approximately 57,000 mt WoW this week, while in-transit and platform inventory declined by 23,000 mt. Overall, nationwide alumina inventory rebounded slightly this week, but the destocking trend since March has not yet reversed. Some new alumina projects in Guangxi are expected to successively enter trial production and formal commissioning, and subsequent commissioning progress should be closely monitored, as it will become a key variable affecting inventory changes.
[Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
