Futures-Spot Resonance Boosted Raw Material Prices, Stainless Steel Smelting Profits Remained Robust [SMM Analysis]

This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs rose in tandem, while smelting profits at stainless steel mills remained basically stable. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 1.79% this week; calculated on inventory raw material costs, the profit margin stood at 2.54%.

Nickel raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Stimulated by news related to Indonesian nickel mines, SHFE nickel and SS futures rose in tandem, driving up high-grade NPI prices. Although downstream stainless steel mills still showed a tendency to push for lower prices, stainless steel mill profits have recovered somewhat, and coupled with the cost pressure of high-grade NPI itself, the upward trend in prices may continue. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 7 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,097 yuan/nickel unit.

Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week. The strengthening of SS futures drove up finished product prices, while the continued fermentation of news on Indonesian nickel mine production halts boosted market sentiment, pushing high-grade NPI prices higher, with stainless steel scrap rising in tandem due to the linkage effect. Supporting factors are clear; although its economic advantage over NPI has narrowed, it remains competitive, and steel mills have strong purchase willingness; the easing of tax invoice shortages has also improved the trading environment. The market presents a pattern of "futures-spot linkage and demand support" with no obvious bearish factors for now, and stainless steel scrap prices are expected to hold up well in the short term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in the Shanghai region rose by 50 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at around 10,400 yuan/mt.

Chromium raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained broadly stable this week. During the week, TISCO took the lead in announcing its May steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome, up 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM, which boosted confidence in the ferrochrome market and eased the downward trend in retail quotations. However, as May tender prices from other mainstream stainless steel mills have yet to be finalised, the market remains uncertain about whether follow-up price increases will materialise, and the stable trend in short-term high-carbon ferrochrome prices is unlikely to change. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia were stable WoW, closing at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).