Metals Fell Nearly Across the Board, SHFE Nickel Rose Over 2%, Polysilicon Plunged Over 7%, Platinum-Palladium and SHFE Silver Led Declines [SMM Midday Review]

SMM April 24 News:

Metals market:

As of the midday close, most base metals on the domestic market fell. SHFE copper dropped 0.66%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.54%. SHFE lead declined 0.15%, and SHFE zinc fell 0.35%. SHFE tin dropped 0.66%, while SHFE nickel rose 2.63%.

In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures fell 0.42%, and the most-traded alumina futures dropped 0.74%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 0.62%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures dropped 7.53%.

Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.45%, rebar edged up slightly, hot-rolled coil dipped slightly, and stainless steel gained 1.85%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.31%, and the most-traded coke contract dropped 1.29%.

Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals generally declined. LME copper fell 0.56%. LME aluminum edged down slightly, LME lead rose 0.15%, and LME zinc dropped 0.41%. LME tin fell 0.48%. LME nickel rose 0.13%.

Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.73%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.91%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 1.03%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures dropped 3.06%.

In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 3.15%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 4.81%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 0.15%, closing at 2,191.4 points.

As of 11:41 on April 24, midday futures quotes for selected contracts:

Spot Prices and Fundamentals

Copper:Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 280 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,795 yuan/mt, up 515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,695 yuan/mt, up 515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory ended a two-session decline and saw a notable increase...

Macro Front

China:

[Compared with early April, 23 products saw price increases, 26 declined, and 1 remained flat in mid-April]Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed: based on monitoring of market prices of 50 key production materials across 9 categories in the national circulation sector, compared with early April 2026, 23 products saw price increases, 26 declined, and 1 remained flat in mid-April; among them, live hogs (crossbred) fell 1.1% MoM.

[New Lunar Soil Discovery! China Discovers Two More New Lunar Minerals]On April 24, the China National Space Administration released the latest research findings on Chang'e-5 lunar samples. China discovered two new lunar minerals from the Chang'e-5 lunar samples. Magnesium Changeite, discovered from the Chang'e-5 lunar samples, was primarily found in basalt fragments obtained through lunar drilling. The mineral appears as columnar crystals, with a grain size of only 2 to 3e-05 meters, approximately one-thirtieth to one-third the diameter of a human hair. Experts told reporters that Magnesium Changeite and the previously discovered Changeite are both calcium-rare earth phosphate minerals, but Magnesium Changeite is richer in magnesium and rare earth elements. In addition to Magnesium Changeite, researchers also discovered a new mineral named Cerium Changeite from the Chang'e-5 lunar samples. (CCTV News)

[PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieved Net Injection of 4.5 Billion Yuan for the Day and 14 Billion Yuan for the Week]The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection for the day was 4.5 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 17 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, the net injection for the week was 14 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data)

US Dollar:

As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 98.89. According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 2.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 96.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 1%.

Mitsubishi UFJ stated that uncertainty over US trade policy persisted. The Trump administration appeared to favor a weaker US dollar. With Warsh nominated as Fed Chairman, concerns over the US Fed's independence remained. (Jin10 Data)

Other Currencies:

Abhijit Surya, Senior Asia-Pacific Economist at Capital Economics, said the Bank of Japan could cut interest rate as early as June. The firm believed that although the Bank of Japan was likely to keep rates unchanged at its meeting next week, the board could release some hawkish signals by raising its forecasts for headline and core inflation. In addition, the Bank of Japan could once again emphasize the risks posed by rising inflation expectations, "especially as some enterprise inflation expectations indicators in the 'Tankan Survey' have begun to exceed the (central bank's) 2% target level." (Jin Shi Data APP)

Data:

Today will see the release of the US April final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the US April final one-year inflation rate expectations, the UK April GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, the German April IFO Business Climate Index, Japan's March core CPI YoY, and Canada's February retail sales MoM, among other data.

Crude oil:

As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets continued to rise, with WTI up 0.65% and Brent up 0.7%. Escalating tensions over Iran supported the continued rise in oil prices.

Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President at BOK Financial Securities, said: "Tensions are tightening further — the market is now pricing in a more intense, longer-lasting standoff." (Wallstreetcn)

A survey by the Dallas Fed showed that US oil executives expected domestic production to rise as the ongoing war involving Iran disrupted global supply and pushed up crude oil and fuel prices. The survey collected data from 120 oil and natural gas companies between April 15-20, of which 78 were exploration and production companies and 42 were oilfield services companies. The survey showed that 43% of respondents expected US crude oil production to increase by up to 250,000 barrels per day this year due to the Iran war. This expectation differed from the forecast of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which estimated that US crude oil production would decrease by 70,000 barrels in 2026. About two-thirds of respondents believed that at least 90% of the currently shut-in Persian Gulf crude oil would eventually return to the market. When asked when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could return to normal levels, 20% of respondents said next month, 39% said August, and the rest said November or later. Most executives expected transportation costs in the Persian Gulf region to rise after the conflict ends, with more than one-third saying costs would increase by $2-4 per barrel. (Jin Shi Data)

Spot market overview:

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