[SMM Steel] European carbon prices stabilize at €74–76/t amid geopolitical and policy signals

[SMM Steel] Hoa Phat Group aims to raise its steel pipe market share to 38–40%, up from around 35% currently, following the commissioning of its Long An plant (400,000 mt/year), lifting total capacity to 1.2 mln mt/year. Q1 2026 pipe sales rose 30% YoY to 241,000 mt, significantly outpacing industry growth (+7%), while market share increased by 5 percentage points YoY. The company plans to focus on large-diameter pipes for infrastructure projects, targeting less competitive segments. Expansion will depend on actual construction demand, while competition is intensifying as peers such as Nam Kim Steel also ramp up capacity.

[SMM Steel] India became a net exporter of finished steel in FY2025–26, with exports rising 36% YoY to 6.6 mln mt, exceeding imports by 78,000 mt. Growth was driven by strong EU demand, with Europe accounting for a major share and exports to Vietnam surging to 772,000 mt. However, the outlook remains uncertain as EU safeguard quotas are set to tighten from July and CBAM costs increase, reducing competitiveness. At the same time, the Iran conflict has disrupted shipments to the GCC and pushed up freight costs, prompting mills to scale back exports. While opportunities exist in CRC exports and markets like Vietnam and the Middle East, these are tempered by policy risks and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

[SMM Steel] Canada’s Canadian International Trade Tribunal has initiated an expiry review of anti-dumping duties on rebar imports from Algeria, Egypt, Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. The review will assess whether removing existing measures could lead to continued or renewed dumping. Previous margins ranged from 3.3% to 23.1% (Vietnam at 10.5%). The Canada Border Services Agency is expected to issue its final determination by September 17, 2026, with a detailed statement to follow in October.