US Dollar Fell, Crude Oil Rose Over 3%, Metals Showed Mixed Performance, LME Nickel Rose Over 1%, Alumina Rose Over 2% [Overnight Market]

SMM April 21 News:

Metal Market:

As of the overnight close, domestic base metals mostly fell, with only SHFE lead and SHFE tin rising together. SHFE lead rose 0.27% and SHFE tin rose 0.79%. The remaining metals all declined, with SHFE zinc leading the losses at 0.41%, while the rest saw minor fluctuations. The alumina front-month contract rose 2.56%, and the casting aluminum front-month contract fell 0.71%.

Overnight, ferrous metals collectively rose, with rebar leading the gains at 0.73%, and hot-rolled coil up 0.69%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.25% and coke rose 1.28%.

Overnight, the overseas market mostly rose, with only LME copper and LME zinc falling together. LME copper fell 0.78% and LME zinc fell 0.44%. LME nickel led the gains at 1.39%, LME tin rose 0.92%, and the remaining metals saw relatively small fluctuations.

Precious metals: overnight COMEX gold fell 0.79% and COMEX silver fell 2.41%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.43% and SHFE silver fell 1.41%.

Overnight closing prices as of 6:52 AM, April 21:

Macro Front

China:

[PBOC: 1-Year and 5-Year LPR Both Held Unchanged]The PBOC kept the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively, marking the eleventh consecutive month of no change. (Jin10 Data APP)

[National Energy Administration: Total Electricity Consumption Reached 2,514.1 Billion kWh from January to March, Up 5.2% YoY]The National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption for March. From January to March, total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh, up 5.2% YoY. By sector, the primary industry consumed 33.6 billion kWh, up 7.1% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 1,598.7 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 1,583.6 billion kWh, up 4.9% YoY, and high-tech and equipment manufacturing consumed 274.6 billion kWh, up 8.6% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 483.3 billion kWh, up 8.1% YoY; of which, EV charging and battery swapping services and internet data services consumed 37.6 billion and 22.9 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates of 53.8% and 44.0%. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 398.5 billion kWh, up 3.4% YoY. (National Energy Administration) (Jin10 Data APP)

[MIIT and Other Departments Held PV Industry Symposium]On April 17, MIIT, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the State Administration for Market Regulation, the National Energy Administration, and other departments jointly held a PV industry symposium to deploy efforts to regulate competition in the PV industry. The meeting emphasized the need to thoroughly implement the CPC Central Committee and State Council's directives on regulating PV industry competition, deeply recognize the importance and urgency of addressing "involution-style" competition, and solidly advance anti-involution efforts in the PV industry. The meeting required strengthening inter-departmental coordination and concerted efforts, continuously deepening PV industry governance, and fully advancing comprehensive anti-involution governance measures including capacity regulation, standards leadership, innovation-driven development, price enforcement, quality supervision, mergers and restructuring, and intellectual property protection, to promote high-quality development of the PV industry. (MIIT) (Jin10 Data APP)

[Li Qiang Chaired the 19th Special Study Session of the State Council]On April 20, the State Council held its 19th special study session on the theme of "Coordinating Energy Security and Green Low-Carbon Transition, Accelerating the Construction of a New-Type Energy System." Li Qiang pointed out that the key to maintaining energy security initiative lies in further optimizing and adjusting the energy structure, strengthening energy technology innovation, accelerating the construction of a new-type energy system, and driving green and low-carbon transformation of energy production and consumption models. Efforts should be made to fully tap the supply potential of renewable energy, adhere to a nationwide coordinated approach, and accelerate the construction of clean energy bases including wind and PV power in north-west China, hydropower in south-west China, and offshore wind power in eastern China. Distributed PV and decentralized wind power should be vigorously developed, and biomass energy, geothermal energy, and ocean energy should be developed based on local conditions to promote integrated development of new energy. Efforts should be made to accelerate the construction of new-type power grids, actively explore new architectures, technologies, and services, increase investment in optimizing power transmission corridor layouts, strengthening backbone network construction, building new-type distribution systems, and improving energy storage and charging facilities. Artificial intelligence should be applied to empower the digital and intelligent transformation of power grids, consolidate the network foundation, enhance system coordination and regulation capabilities, and build safe, reliable, green, low-carbon, resilient, intelligent, and flexible new-type power grids to better meet the diversified energy demands of high-quality development. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data APP)

US Dollar:

As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.16% to 98.06, as traders remained optimistic about the possibility of breakthroughs in the US peace process. The US Congress will hold the first confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Warsh on Tuesday local time. Warsh will pledge to Congress to maintain strict independence on interest rate matters. According to opening remarks obtained in advance by Politico, Warsh stated that interest rate decisions must be strictly independent of political considerations, and monetary policy should not be a tool for short-term political objectives. He also emphasized that the US Fed's credibility comes from institutional constraints and policy discipline. Warsh said the central bank should listen to diverse opinions, and politicians expressing views on interest rates is not a real threat. Rather, it is the US Fed's own discipline and rigor that sustains its independent status. He emphasized that price stability is the US Fed's safeguard and pledged to take full responsibility for it, "making no excuses and no deflections." Warsh also warned against the post-crisis expansion of the US Fed's functional boundaries, arguing that it should not extend its reach into fiscal or social policy areas where it lacks statutory authority. The US Senate Banking Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Warsh at 10 PM Beijing time on April 21. (Jin10 Data APP)

According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 2.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 97.5%.

Macro:

Data to be released today include US March retail sales MoM, US February business inventory MoM, US March pending home sales index MoM, Germany April ZEW economic sentiment index, UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK March unemployment rate, UK March jobless claims, Switzerland March trade balance, and Eurozone April ZEW economic sentiment index.

In addition, the US Senate Banking Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman, and ECB President Lagarde will deliver a keynote speech at the 75th anniversary annual reception of the Association of German Banks. Also, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open.

Crude Oil:

As of the overnight close, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 4% and Brent up 3.78%. Barclays: the forecast of $85/barrel for 2026 Brent crude oil prices faces upside risk. Citi: global crude oil and refined product inventories are expected to decline by approximately 900 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP)

The gasoline-to-crude oil price spread posted its largest single-week gain on record, which was positive news for refiners under pressure from high oil prices caused by the Iran war. In north-west Europe, the gasoline-to-crude oil price spread rose to above $17 per barrel on Friday, up about $25 from a week earlier, the largest gain recorded by the benchmark index since late 2010. This sharp rise came after similarly sharp declines in recent weeks. The wild swings in gasoline prices were primarily driven by significant changes in physical crude oil costs. In early April, Brent spot prices hit a record high, which pushed the gasoline price spread (the so-called "crack spread") into negative territory. Now, crude oil prices have pulled back, and gasoline prices are once again rising relative to Brent spot prices. (Jin10 Data APP)

Omar al-Wairi, head of Iraq's Border Ports Authority, announced that the Rabia border crossing in northern Iraq bordering Syria reopened from that day. In 2011, after the Syrian civil war broke out, the Rabia border crossing located in Nineveh Province in northern Iraq bordering Syria was closed for an extended period due to the security situation in Syria and surrounding areas. Omar al-Wairi stated that the reopening of the Rabia border crossing would facilitate the movement of people, trade, and crude oil transactions between Iraq, Syria, and neighboring countries via the crossing. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP)

Kuwait Petroleum Corporation announced that due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz preventing vessels from entering the Persian Gulf and thus making it unable to fulfill supply obligations to clients, it decided to invoke force majeure measures on the transportation of crude oil and refined products. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation notified clients on Friday that it was taking action under contractual terms to allow suppliers to delay deliveries. However, sources said this did not mean supply would be completely disrupted. (Jin10 Data APP)