Raw Materials Drove Finished Steel Higher, Intraday Trading of Hot-Rolled and Cold-Rolled Products Improved

In May 2026, global square billet markets exhibited a generally upward but fragmented trend, with average prices in most regional markets rising by $10–$20 per metric ton (mt). Black Sea FOB billet prices climbed by $13 to reach a 2025-high of $483/t, while Italy's Ex-Works prices increased by $18 to $621/t. Conversely, the Gulf region experienced a slight decline, with prices dropping from $518/t to $514/t. Furthermore, the National Bank of Ukraine forecasts that average billet prices will rise 4.9% year-on-year to $487.7/t FOB Ukraine in 2026. The mixed price movements highlight shifting trade flows; while solid domestic and Iranian demand allowed Russian suppliers to maintain firm pricing despite Turkish buyers seeking $505–$510/t CFR, the broader market lost momentum by late May due to weakening Chinese futures and inflation pressures in ASEAN countries.

The Canadian government has extended its critical metal tariff measures for one year, valid until June 27, 2027, to protect domestic producers from global excess capacity. Under the extended policy, non-CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) steel imports exceeding set quotas will face a steep 50% tariff. The tariff-rate quota limits remain strictly capped at 20% of 2024 import volumes for non-free trade agreement (FTA) partners and 75% for FTA partners, while the US and Mexico maintain their exemptions. By locking in these stringent quota limits, Canada aims to prevent trade diversion and provide long-term predictability for local steel operations. However, this extension could constrain supply availability for Canadian downstream manufacturers reliant on offshore steel, potentially driving up domestic premium prices in the medium term.

The Australian Anti-Dumping Commission has issued an affirmative preliminary determination, imposing a 37.8% provisional anti-dumping (AD) duty on light gauge steel studs and tracks imported from China, effective May 26, 2026. The tariff applies to Wenan Kaize Building Material Co., Ltd. and all other Chinese exporters, while the concurrent countervailing duty (CVD) investigation continues without preliminary duties. Initiated on June 30, 2025, upon request by Rondo Building Services Pty Ltd, the case evaluates dumping activities from April 2024 to March 2025. This tariff barrier is expected to force Chinese exporters to reassess their pricing strategies for the Australian market and could lead to increased domestic steel procurement in Australia, temporarily disrupting the region's light gauge steel supply chain and supporting local mill margins.