Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,927/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $1,941.5/mt during the Asian session; it first declined then rose during the European session, ultimately closing at $1,934.5/mt, up 0.34%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened high at 16,655 yuan/mt. After bulls reduced positions, SHFE lead moved sideways around the 16,620 yuan/mt level, hitting a low of 16,595 yuan/mt during the session, and ultimately closed at 16,640 yuan/mt, down 0.09%.
On the macro front:
On Tuesday, US President Trump stated that negotiations might resume in Pakistan in the next two days after talks broke down last weekend; Pakistani and Iranian officials also indicated that negotiations could restart, with the agenda including the critical Strait of Hormuz transit as well as Iran's nuclear activities and international sanctions. The US March PPI annual rate came in at 4%, below market expectations of 4.6%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US should "wait and see" before cutting interest rates, and that recent inflation would not become embedded in expectations. Tariffs could return to previous levels by early July. Russian media: Russia imposed temporary export restrictions on helium and was considering imposing excise taxes on imported steel. In Q1 2026, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 11.84 trillion yuan, exceeding 11 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period historically, up 15% YoY.
:
SHFE lead relatively rebounded after stopping its decline, but as delivery was imminent, some suppliers waited for delivery, and few warrant cargoes were quoted. For primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site, suppliers quoted in line with the market, and discounts narrowed further compared to yesterday. Mainstream production areas were quoted at premiums of -30~+75 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, more secondary lead enterprises in east China cut or halted production, tightening circulating supply in the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of +0~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. After lead prices stopped falling, downstream enterprises purchased as needed, with moderate purchasing enthusiasm. Moreover, as secondary lead was in short supply and priced high, rigid demand leaned more toward primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site, and spot market transactions improved.
Inventory: On April 14, LME lead inventory decreased by 475 mt to 276,850 mt; as of April 13, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions edged up slightly.
Lead price forecast for today:
Today, the SHFE lead 2604 contract entered delivery. Suppliers transferred and shipped to delivery warehouses, with some social warehouses seeing notable increases. Overall inventory has once again surpassed the 60,000 mt threshold. Recently, the lead-acid battery market entered the off-season for consumption, and downstream enterprise purchasing demand weakened. Meanwhile, due to losses, some medium-to-large secondary lead enterprises in east China successively commenced planned maintenance. Under expectations of declining supply and demand, upward pressure on lead prices persists in the short term.
Data Source Statement: Data other than public information is SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
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