Copper Prices Returned to the 100,000 Mark, Spot Premiums Remained Firm as the Last Trading Day Approached [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM April 14 Update:

During the morning session, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened with a gap-up before moving sideways. The opening price was 100,540 yuan/mt. After the open, prices jumped to a high of 101,360 yuan/mt, then pulled back slightly, fluctuating between 100,700 yuan/mt and 101,200 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 100,770 yuan/mt. The inter-month contango price spread ranged from 100 yuan/mt to 10 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper front-month contract ranged from a loss of 50 yuan/mt to a profit of 50 yuan/mt.

Intraday, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.74, down 0.02 MoM, and the purchasing sentiment was 2.68, down 0.02 MoM.. In the early morning session, suppliers offered standard-quality copper at premiums of 40-70 yuan/mt, with Lufang, JCC and others quoting premiums of 60-70 yuan/mt; Dajiang PC, Tiefeng, Zijin, Yuguang, Jinchuan ISA and Yongchang quoting premiums of 40-60 yuan/mt; and Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC and Jinfeng quoting ex-factory premiums of 60-70 yuan/mt. For high-quality copper, Jinchuan (plate) and Jintun plate were quoted at premiums of 80-90 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper was traded at discounts of 70-60 yuan/mt. In the second trading session, suppliers held prices firm while slightly lowering offers. Standard-quality copper ONSAN was quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, and Jinguan, Jinxing, Jintun PC and others were traded at premiums of 50-70 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, which is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2604 contract, per the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract. From a market structure perspective, copper prices rose intraday, but the inter-month contango price spread maintained a certain width, and suppliers showed some willingness to hold prices firm. According to SMM, after copper prices returned above the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, orders from downstream enterprises decreased notably, weakening demand-side support. In addition, some suppliers have already begun making tentative offers against the next-month contract intraday. Since SMM consistently quotes against the front-month contract, the passive premium room after the contract rollover is expected to be limited based on the price spread conversion. Spot prices against the front-month contract are expected to be at a slight premium or near parity tomorrow.