Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, touched a high of $1,998.5/mt during the Asian session before moving downward; during the European session, it first rose then fell, with a late-session dive to a low of $1,970/mt, ultimately closing at $1,984/mt, down 0.53%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,700 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of 16,765 yuan/mt in early trading before weakening, touched a low of 16,670 yuan/mt in late trading, and ultimately closed at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.03%.
On the macro front:
Last Friday, the market awaited the results of US-Iran negotiations, and Israel had sought to negotiate with Lebanon, which brought hope for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the US would not allow Iran to make money by selling oil. An Iranian oil ministry official said the damaged refineries were expected to restore at least 70% of their previous capacity within one to two months. Li Qiang chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs. The second batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds this year to support trade-in policies for consumer goods was recently disbursed. NBS: CPI rose 1.0% YoY in March, and PPI turned from a YoY decline to an increase. Shanghai Stock Exchange: the price change limit for risk-warning stocks on the main board was adjusted from 5% to 10%.
:
In the Shanghai market, Hongli lead was quoted at 16,700-16,800 yuan/mt, quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. Last Friday, SHFE lead continued to fluctuate downward, and due to limited circulating cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, suppliers held prices firm and shipped at premiums. Meanwhile, quotations for cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were chaotic, with large price spreads between high and low prices in north China, while south China generally shipped at discounts. Mainstream production areas quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters shipped following the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, among which tax-exclusive cargoes saw more shipments than tax-inclusive ones. In addition, downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment with few inquiries, and some made just-in-time procurement. The spot market showed no signs of improvement in transactions for the time being.
Inventory: On April 10, LME lead inventory decreased by 550 mt to 278,225 mt. As of April 9, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory pulled back slightly.
Lead price forecast for today:
Weakening lead consumption in China and inflows of imported lead became the main factors dragging down lead prices. As SHFE lead enters the delivery week, suppliers are transferring inventory and shipping to delivery warehouses, converting it into visible inventory, and lead prices may come under pressure and weaken. At the same time, we need to monitor whether secondary lead enterprises fulfill their maintenance plans. If production cuts proceed as scheduled, lead prices may have the possibility of bottoming out and rebounding.
Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
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