Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,943/mt. Prices dipped briefly during the Asian session before rising in a volatile manner, touching a high of $1,948/mt. Entering the European session, lead prices continued to weaken, hitting a low of $1,921/mt. Prices rebounded slightly toward the end of the session, ultimately closing at $1,925.5/mt, down $22/mt, a decline of 1.13%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Early in the session, prices moved sideways within the 16,710-16,745 yuan/mt range, touching a high of 16,745 yuan/mt. Prices then came under pressure and weakened, hitting a low of 16,675 yuan/mt. After 23:00, prices rebounded slightly but lacked upward momentum, ultimately closing at 16,705 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 80 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.48%.
On the macro front:
1. Trump warned Iran not to charge tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Putin announced a 32-hour ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, and Ukraine followed suit. 3. The Israeli PM ordered direct negotiations with Lebanon. 4. Sources said Iran would not engage in peace talks with the US until a ceasefire was achieved in Lebanon. 5. US media: The US government was expected to extend Russian oil sanctions waivers this week, potentially paving the way for Iranian oil waivers. 6. Yemen's Houthi forces threatened to tighten Red Sea passage over the Lebanon attack issue. 7. He Lifeng met with Ray Dalio, founder of US investment company Bridgewater. 8. Four government departments held a symposium with enterprises in the power and ESS battery industry.
Spot fundamentals:
Macro sentiment shifted, non-ferrous metals pulled back broadly, and SHFE lead also declined in a volatile manner. Suppliers became less willing to make shipments, and quoted discounts narrowed compared to the previous day. Additionally, the price spread for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site widened, especially in South China where quoted discounts expanded further. Mainstream production areas were quoted at premiums of -50 to +25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters made shipments following the market trend. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50 to 0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises only made just-in-time procurement, with a few purchasing on dips, while others mainly took delivery under long-term contracts. The spot order market was sluggish.
Inventory side, as of April 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 250 mt to 278,775 mt; SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions pulled back slightly.
Lead price forecast for today:
Supply side, social inventory of lead ingots across five regions in China decreased slightly. Some secondary lead enterprises accelerated resumption of production after the holiday, with capacity gradually being released. Meanwhile, some smelters cut production slightly due to raw material shortages of scrap batteries, presenting a mixed picture on the supply side. Demand side, the market was dominated by just-in-time procurement, with a few entities restocking on dips, while the rest mainly fulfilled long-term contracts. The spot order market saw sluggish trading activity. SHFE lead faced increasing resistance from above, and lead prices were expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation trend going forward.
![SMM Secondary Lead Smelter Weekly Operating Rate (2026.4.3-2026.4.9) [SMM Lead Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/ojSqv20251217171720.jpeg)
![SHFE Lead Opened Lower with a Gap and Remained in the Doldrums, LME Lead Struggled to Rise and Retreated after Rapid Rise [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/XMxKT20251217171720.jpeg)
