Silver Market Price Review and Expectations Brief Commentary (April 9, 2026) [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

[Price Review] Silver prices continued to weaken early this week amid the fermentation of Trump's speech from last week, but on Wednesday (April 8), supported by the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and a weaker US dollar, silver prices began to rebound, surging nearly 5% on April 8 alone. Short-term capital momentum, investment demand, and industrial demand had not recovered, with strong wait-and-see sentiment among market traders. Downstream transactions were still dominated by significantly reduced premium prices, and precious metal price gains remained relatively limited. Gold/silver ratio, as of April 8, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 62, maintaining a fluctuating trend in the short term.

[Key Data]
Bearish:
US March seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls came in at 178,000, above expectations and the previous value
US March unemployment rate was reported at 4.3%, below expectations and the previous value
US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending April 3 was 308.1, above expectations and the previous value
US API crude oil inventory for the week ending April 3 was above expectations and the previous value
On April 7, the US and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, but Trump threatened that any country providing military weapons to Iran would be immediately subject to a 50% tariff.
Data and macro news releases to watch next week include:
On April 10 (Friday), the US is set to release March CPI data. Affected by energy price surges caused by the Iran war, the market widely expects inflation to rise significantly.
Geopolitics, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf will lead an Iranian delegation to negotiate with the US in Islamabad, Pakistan, with the US side led by Vice President Vance. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz invited both the Iranian and US delegations to further negotiate in Islamabad on April 10 to reach a final agreement resolving all disputes. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz situation, cracks appeared in the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with Iran claiming three key provisions were violated, and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again.

[Price Forecast] In the short term, the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict remains the primary factor determining whether silver prices will sustain the rebound, with insufficient support from short-term industrial demand and investment demand. China fundamentals side, silver ingot spot cargo had shown a slight surplus and inventory buildup trend. Due to relatively pessimistic expectations for the PV industry in April, just-in-time procurement demand for silver nitrate, silver powder, and silver paste enterprises declined. As the SHFE April delivery approaches, suppliers showed a notably increased intention to deliver and liquidate, and the upward trend in silver ingot social inventory is likely to continue. Although silver prices next week may be boosted by the ceasefire and a weaker US dollar, the overall in the doldrums situation for precious metals has not been fully reversed. Spot transaction expectations remain at a slight premium or shifting to parity, and close attention should continue to be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts and their impact on market sentiment and capital flow adjustments.