Vale Plans to Increase Resource Reserves; LME Copper Was Closed Overnight, and SHFE Copper Closed Higher Ahead of the Holiday [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Tuesday, April 7, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper was closed due to Easter, with the last trading day before the holiday ending at $12,348.5/mt, down 0.99%; overnight, SHFE copper was closed due to the Qingming Festival, with the last trading day before the holiday ending at 96,250 yuan/mt, up 0.39%.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) Vale Base Metals said that, thanks to recent exploration success in the Americas, its mineral resource reserves in Canada and Brazil are expected to increase by 20% by the end of 2027 from 2024 to 2027. Vale recently disclosed its resource reserve growth target and also introduced its 2025 exploration results and 2026 expectations. However, the company did not disclose the exact increase in resource reserves by the end of 2027. As of the end of 2025, Vale's copper resource reserves stood at 53 million mt, up 6% YoY; nickel resource reserves stood at 14 million mt, up 13%. At the current production pace, copper resources can support production for more than 50 years. Growth in copper, nickel, as well as cobalt, platinum, palladium, and gold resource reserves has "greatly strengthened" the company's development potential.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of April 3, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened sharply higher, then fell, stabilized, and rebounded. It opened at 96,050 yuan/mt, rose all the way to 96,450 yuan/mt after the opening, then fluctuated slightly before falling rapidly to a low of 96,000 yuan/mt. It then stabilized and rebounded somewhat, fluctuating between 96,140 yuan/mt and 96,300 yuan/mt, and closed at 96,230 yuan/mt. The contango price spread between futures contracts for the next-month contract was between 70 yuan/mt and 20 yuan/mt, and LME copper was closed today. Looking ahead to today, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Supply side, smelters maintained normal operations during the Qingming Festival holiday, and domestic spot cargo will continue to be produced. Coupled with the gradual arrival of imported copper, circulating cargo in the post-holiday market will tend to loosen. In addition, although some suppliers engaged in slight sell-offs during the day, with Honglu quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, this did not drag overall spot discounts lower, reflecting that suppliers still had the willingness to hold prices firm at current price levels, and spot discounts found some support on the downside. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between expectations of loose supply and suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at a discount today.
(2) Guangdong: On April 3, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 210 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; a premium of 120 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and a premium of 60 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 96,290 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 96,185 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, pre-holiday restocking was basically completed, suppliers struggled to hold prices firm, and spot trades were not as good as on April 2.
(3) Imported copper: On April 3, LME copper was closed. The average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $65/mt (price range: $60-70/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $61/mt (price range: $56-66/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was unchanged from the previous trading day at $34/mt (price range: $28-40/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes arriving from mid-April to early May.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on April 3, the futures closing price was 96,070 yuan/mt, down 800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were -50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On April 3, copper scrap prices fell 300 yuan/mt MoM, the sales sentiment index for copper scrap fell to 2.41, the purchase sentiment index fell to 2.35, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was -91 yuan/mt, down 457 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 970 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, although copper prices rose slightly, it was still difficult to stimulate shipments from suppliers of copper scrap. As some small and medium-sized suppliers faced tight inventory and the Qingming Festival approached, purchases and deliveries were suspended during the holiday, and overall intraday transactions were average.
Prices: Macro perspective, Trump said Tuesday was the deadline for reaching a US-Iran agreement, and the market remained cautiously watchful over whether the agreement would be reached. In addition, two US Fed officials warned of a severe inflation situation, hinting at tighter monetary policy, and market expectations for interest rate cuts continued to cool. Fundamentals, supply side, imported cargoes continued to arrive, while domestic spot cargo was also steadily replenished, leaving overall market circulation ample; demand side, downstream enterprises showed low acceptance of current copper prices, with purchases mostly maintained at the pace of rigid demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain in the doldrums today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]