[SMM Analysis] Zijin Mining’s Lithium Business Entered a Large-Scale Delivery Phase

Zijin Mining's 2025 annual report sent a clear industry signal: its lithium business has officially moved from strategic reserve to the stage of scaled monetization. During the reporting period, the company achieved lithium carbonate equivalent production of 25,500 mt, mainly from the Lakkor Tso project in Tibet, the 3Q salt lake project in Argentina, the Xiangyuan hard-rock mine in Hunan, and the newly consolidated Zangge Mining. Although its absolute scale has not yet matched that of leading lithium enterprises, the quality of its asset mix deserves attention—both Lakkor Tso and 3Q follow low-cost salt lake lithium extraction routes, with the former adopting a short-process green technology and the latter reporting first-phase cash operating costs as low as $2,914/mt, placing it on the left side of the global cost curve.

More importantly, the capacity ramp-up path over the next three years is clear: the company guided 2026 production at 120,000 mt and targeted 270,000-320,000 mt by 2028, more than 11 times higher than in 2025. The core increment will come from the phase-two expansions of its two major salt lake bases and the concentrated commissioning of the Manono Northeast project in the DRC. Among them, the Manono project plans to start production in June 2026 and is expected to contribute 30,000 mt that year, becoming the main source of production elasticity in 2026-2027.

Resource side, the company's controlled lithium resources ranked among the world's leading positions. Through the acquisition of Zangge Mining, Zijin further strengthened its resource footprint in the Qinghai-Tibet salt lake belt and added synergies from potash resources.

Industry chain side, Zijin has not stopped at the mine end. Through Zijin Lithium, the company has already introduced cathode materials into leading battery cell enterprises and advanced supporting projects in lithium chemicals, LFP, and green electricity. The margin of safety built by low-cost salt lake assets, combined with the production elasticity brought by the concentrated commissioning of multiple projects, is expected to enable Zijin to achieve significant earnings elasticity during an upcycle in lithium prices. For the market, this mining giant, best known for copper and gold, is using lithium to write its second growth curve.