Florian Grummes 30. March 2026
As of: March 27, 2026 by Florian Grummes
For almost four weeks, the war against Iran has kept the world on edge – a conflict that leaves deep marks not only geopolitically but also economically. Volatility and uncertainty in global markets are increasing daily. Faced with Iran’s surprising resilience, the highly corrupt US administration wavers between wild threats, military mobilization, absurd claims, embarrassing aimlessness, and Trump’s typical capitulation.
Palace Circus – The War and its Global Consequences
The Turkish proverb “When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn’t become a king – the palace becomes a circus” sums it up perfectly. The illegal war of aggression by the USA and Israel has plunged the entire world into unprecedented chaos: Oil prices have exploded, which has already led to a partial collapse of the global economy. At the same time, supply chains for food, fertilizers, medicines, and technology are massively endangered. Simultaneously, massive waves of refugees from the Middle East threaten to destabilize entire regions.
Environmental Destruction and Climate Irony
Precisely at a time when Germany has been economically and energy-wise self-castrating for years for the sake of alleged climate change, the environment in the Middle East is being severely poisoned by bombed refineries, rockets, sunken oil tankers, and chemical contamination – with long-term, presumably irreversible damage to the climate and biodiversity. And above all, the real danger of a nuclear Armageddon looms as long as the warmongers in Washington and Jerusalem, as well as in Tehran, continue to call the shots.
Funds Halt Payouts – New Financial Crisis Looms
While the Iran War has already plunged the world into economic and geopolitical chaos, further trouble threatens from the USA. Since 2008, numerous large investment funds have extended loans to companies and individuals who could no longer obtain financing from banks. Companies such as Blue Owl Capital, KKR, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Apollo Global Management, and Ares Management filled the gap created by stricter banking regulations after the financial crisis. Today, private credit funds manage loans totaling approximately $1.8 trillion – primarily to medium-sized companies without access to public capital markets.
The ongoing tensions in the credit and real estate markets increasingly show parallels to the 2008 financial crisis. While mortgage-backed securities imploded back then, today illiquid private credit and real estate funds are faltering.
As an example: The UBS Euroinvest Real Estate Fund ($469 million) has suspended redemptions due to acute liquidity shortages – already the third open-ended fund in 2026. Investors face payout delays of up to three years.
The precedent is alarming: In June 2007, Bear Stearns halted two hedge funds with exactly the same pretext. 15 months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed, triggering the global crisis. UBS has now reviewed its portfolio. Overvalued office buildings with record vacancies cannot be liquidated without massive write-downs. The illusion of high real estate values is bursting – just like in 2008.
This illustrates how tight liquidity has become in the markets. Investors who once fled to open-ended funds because they promised security and regular redemption options are now sitting on frozen capital. Declining rental income, falling valuations of office properties, and rising financing costs exacerbate the pressure – similar to 2008, when assets suddenly became illiquid and valuations proved to be an illusion.
In parallel, a broader credit crisis is escalating in the global financial system, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, rising bond yields, and structural problems in the so-called “shadow banking system.”
Private credit funds, which took over the banks’ riskier financing after the 2008 financial crisis, are now themselves under pressure: rising default risks, growing redemption requests, and doubts about the valuations of their illiquid loans evoke memories of summer 2007. If funds like Ares, Apollo, or Blue Owl limit or completely stop capital redemptions, this can trigger a domino effect of loss of confidence and liquidity bottlenecks – the classic dynamic of a credit crisis. The difference from 2008, however, is that this time the risks are not in bank balance sheets, but in investors’ fund portfolios.
When the Dollar Stumbles, Gold Will Shine
A new global financial crisis is thus looming, in which the US dollar is likely to be the big loser in the long term. As the preferred liquidity and reserve medium in uncertain times, it is currently experiencing what is probably another brief upswing, but the enormous consequences of the conflict – from destroyed oil infrastructure to exploding government spending and global instability – are accelerating its unstoppable loss of confidence and should ultimately lead to its demise as the world’s leading currency.
US national debt has already exceeded the point where interest payments surpass the defense budget. Every major power in the last 500 years that has reached this point has been irrevocably in decline. Gold, on the other hand, will massively benefit as a true safe haven and real money, which will become indispensable in such an apocalyptic situation.
Volatile Correction in the Gold Market
Immediately after the first American attack, the gold price briefly shot up to $5,419 on Monday, March 2, before a brutal correction, as feared, made its way over the past three and a half weeks. Both precious metals and stock markets experienced a massive slump.
On Monday morning, the gold price finally reached its low point at $4,099 – a decrease of 24.27 percent.
Silver was hit even harder: starting from $96.42, the price plummeted by 36.73 percent since the beginning of March and only found a bottom at $61.
By the end of the week, however, both precious metals showed a significant recovery from these lows. Thus, precious metal prices currently reflect both the fear and the hope of many: fear of further escalation and hope for stability in turbulent times.
Gold – Sharp ABC Correction Brings Reunion with the 200-Day Line
Since the new all-time high of $5,594 on January 29, the gold price has been undergoing a highly volatile correction phase, which has intensified significantly over the past three and a half weeks. From the peak to the low of $4,099, this represents a total decline of 26.8 percent.
Crucially, however: After two years of spectacular rally, gold was strongly overbought on a weekly and monthly basis and, after the initial sell-off at the end of January, entered the new geopolitical war environment already slightly battered – which explains the exorbitant price pullbacks in gold and silver.
In this panicked market environment, the gold price finally fell back last Monday close to its rapidly rising 200-day line (currently $4,112), before a brilliant recovery set in, catapulting gold prices back up to $4,602. However, this upswing ended quite abruptly precisely at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,602, followed by a rapid decline of around $250.
As long as a clear breakout above the 38.2% retracement around $4,600 fails to materialize, the overarching downtrend remains undoubtedly intact. Typically, a recovery that only reaches the 38.2% retracement, despite short-term heavily oversold indicators, suggests structural weakness in the market. Thus, the risk of new lows below $4,100 persists.
Likewise, the quick and only very superficial test of the 200-day line is not enough for us. A second foothold on this much-observed average line should be planned for the coming weeks at a minimum.
Nevertheless, the chances for a larger recovery or at least another attack on the currently crucial resistance zone at $4,600 are quite good, as the daily stochastic has turned and is generating a new buy signal.
In this volatile environment, characterized by geopolitical turmoil and Trump’s ongoing theatrics, anything is possible at any time. Therefore, given the increasing global instability, we remain cautiously positioned. With a significantly increased liquidity ratio, we patiently await the opportunities that will arise throughout the year.
We see renewed, significant pullbacks towards $4,300, $4,100, and especially below $4,000 as attractive entry opportunities for gold. Our “worst-case” scenario for the gold price correction foresees a target zone between $3,400 and $3,600.
Conclusion: Gold – From the Iran War to Global Financial Catastrophe
For four weeks, the US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran and its counterattacks have kept the world under constant stress: the blocked Strait of Hormuz is strangling global shipping, causing oil prices to explode, and paralyzing essential supply chains worldwide, while bombed refineries irreversibly poison the environment. At the same time, the Trump administration stumbles aimlessly between threats and retreats, while private credit funds with $1.8 trillion in volume suffer from liquidity shortages and draw parallels to the 2008 crisis.
Is the Ultimate Financial Crash Looming? The US dollar is losing its status as the world’s reserve currency ever faster. It is burdened by interest payments beyond the defense budget. Every major power in the last 500 years failed at this point.
In contrast, gold is establishing itself as an irreplaceable safe haven amidst the chaos, but the transition could initially be even more chaotic. Precious metal investors must show thick skin in the coming weeks and months, as the correction in gold and silver prices does not yet seem to be over.
Regardless of short-term price movements and a possible recovery or counter-movement, we fear that the gold price will only find its final turning point at least one level lower.
Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-from-the-iran-war-to-global-financial-catastrophe/
