Copper Cathode Rod Inventories Rise as Downstream Demand Slows Amid High Operating Rates

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in a tug-of-war. Supply side, some suppliers had already sold part of their imported cargoes during the day, such as Onsan, SR-P, and Polish large plates, while a large volume of imported copper is still set to arrive next week, and whether actual supply will increase significantly remains to be seen. If copper prices continue to fluctuate rangebound within the current range, the increase in supply will weigh on spot premiums. Demand side, next week will usher in a stockpiling window ahead of the Qingming Festival, and downstream enterprises may have demand to restock in advance. Spot transactions are expected to improve, which may provide temporary support to premiums. In addition, from the perspective of market structure, the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper has remained at a relatively narrow level, reflecting that current market trading is mainly driven by actual consumption demand, with brand premiums weakening and buyers paying more attention to price itself rather than brand differences. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at the current level next Monday.

Spot #1 copper cathode in North China was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a discount of 40 yuan/mt against the front-month contract today. The average price remained unchanged from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price fell by 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 95,345 yuan/mt.